To: Richard Habib who wrote (16617 ) 8/13/1998 7:54:00 PM From: Marc Newman Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 213177
Richard, I made a post yesterday on the AOL MF boards trying to figure out the same thing. What kind of new positive publicity might arise over the weekend and what kind of negatives will be dredged up (bad old Apple, etc.). I don't agree with it either, but you're right, we can count on some FUD and have already been seeing some for weeks. People love to talk about Apple, one way or the other. I agree that we aren't out of the woods with this correction, but think we only have another 5% downside or so. So far, it is the institutions selling into strength, not the little guy cashing out. In fact, from what I've read and heard, there is a ton of money on the sidelines waiting to get back in. And retirement money continues to flow in weekly. The liquidity-driven bull market lives on. My pick is that the real troubles start next year when US profits don't improve, the rest of the world continues to stumble, and then Y2K costs get factored in. Interestingly, Apple might overcome this in the same way that Internet stocks have become safe havens. If Americans continue to race to the internet and Apple continues to gain share and grow revs from the apparent lows we've already seen this year, then even an Intel stumble might not effect Apple beyond slowing it down. It's amazing how well the internet stocks have held up, because the thinking goes (I guess) that internet growth is still exploding and Asia et al won't stop that. Well, Apple has tied itself to the internet with the iMac and of course Apple doesn't have a Y2K problem either. Actually, I think I'll be just as bearish as you are now, in another six months or so. Seriously. But for now, I'm buying heavily into companies that I know are going to have a great remainder of 1998, figuring that even a negative overall market will only hold them down, not decimate them. We'll see. Thanks for both your thoughts and reportage from what you see first hand internationally. Marc