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To: Jenna who wrote (49836)	8/13/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE ----------------------- We closed below yesterday's lows - another bad sign. The DOW TRANSPORTS dropped alot today - another bad sign. Sorry, but bad signals after bad signals today. Not much good to report. It is not that today is down but the increasing number of worsening technical signals. I came up with that STAIR-STEP-THEORY, just late last night and so far it appears that it is working. If it continues then the DOW should drop 200-300 more points over the next 2-3 days, and subjectively it could all happen in one day. Please keep in mind that we dropped about 145 points off todays highs - that is no small pullback and implies strong negativity. Tomorrow could still be up and stay within this STAIR-STEP-THEORY as long as it does not break 8600 to the upside. I seriously doubt any breakout above 8600 before a retest of the recent lows in the 8250 range, which is now only about 100 points away. The probability is in favor of futher down movement for tomorrow. It is looking serious, and the key question is not whether the 8350 support will hold, but how much will we break it by. As previously indicated the next support area is at 8238-8166, which is strong and very key. SUPPORT AREAS: 8319 - WEAK 8238-8166 - STRONG, KEY PIVOTAL SUPPORT 8073-8035 - STRONG 7785 - STRONG If the 8200 support does not hold, I seriously believe that 8073-8035(lets call it 8050) will hold. We should either bottom out at the 8200 or 8050 support areas and should go no lower for the time being. If we bottom at 8200 or 8050, either one does not matter, I strongly suspect that the market will strongly upsurge and regain 62% of its loss. I am not sure where to calculate the starting point of this downtrend. Many will say that the top was at 9300, but there are technical arguements that the actual top is at 9041. I feel that whereever we bottom, as long as it is below 8317(TUEs LOWS) the upswing will be strong and this time will take a "V" formation. So that will be a good time to go long. I see the maximum upside at 9041 which should reached by or before the 1st week of SEPT. The timing for the highest probability of the really big dump that could take the DOW into the 7000's will be the 2nd week of SEPT onwards. That will be the time to really load up on PUTs. 1) BREAK THE 8350 SUPPORT AND BOTTOM AT EITHER 8200 OR 8050 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK(TUE/WED/THUR). 2) STRONG REBOUND TO START IMMEDIATELY AFTER WE BOTTOM NEXT WEEK(WED/THUR/FRI) 3) MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF REBOUND AT 9041 TO BE ACHIEVED BY 1ST WEEK OF SEPT 4) MAJOR DOWNSWING TO START 2ND WEEK OF SEPT. If we do not break 8350 to the downside the strong upswing may not take place and will throw off the timing mentioned above. Breaking 8350 support is the key to this senerio. Seeya

To: Jenna who wrote (49836)	8/14/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: Nemer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Jenna : Scott sent me to answer your question - ------->Just wondering if there were any system beside the regular channel trading systems for determining exit points. I daytrade the OEX (smaller spreads) ATM or ITM puts and calls based on my forecasts from SPX figures. I used to base my figs on OEX but when it split the spread became too large and I shifted to SPX base ----- now the spread there is too large and I reverted to the OEX ..... ggg My system is geared for 2 1/2 to 3 point or larger swings in the SPX and I get on average about 3 signals per day. I normally set my target at time of inception and if the market is moving very fast in the direction of my purchase, I'll exit half position at target and rest the stop to close to that exit point .... This works for me ..... it could well not work for someone else because it takes close attention to the particular position the entire time it is open. So, basically in response to you ----- I set a target at the open of the position and exit at target .... Hope this answers your question, some..... Market is just opening , so I'll quit now....... gggggg Regards ----- OldBeanNemer