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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Wise who wrote (7975)	8/14/1998 12:16:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

>> Is it possible that the barrage of attacks by all shorts (including Barron's Mr. Alpert) could cause the stock price to drop so low they can't raise additional operating funds? I think so! << Additional operating funds??? I have never added up all the cash this "company" has raised and it is very complicated to try to go back and piece it together, but I would say it is probably around $100 million. How much more money do they need???? They just raised another $8 million a few months ago! Is it gone already?? Must be, they're trying to soak the markets for more money via the EN IPO! Ahh...that's right, Osicom is wasting all your shareholder money buying back stock----only to see it fall 50%. Nice use of funds you hucksters!

To: David Wise who wrote (7975)	8/14/1998 12:36:00 AM
From: Afaq Sarwar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

David Wise, Great post! I agree with you completely. I watch evening financial news on PBS on most days. Almost every time I watch I notice that there are several companies highlighted whose stock prices have change substantially during the trading that day. The changes are 40, 50, 60, 70% and some time even larger. In some cases the stock price goes up, and in some cases it goes down. What does this type of change in the stock price of a company during one trading session suggests? Only one thing. The market did not know, the market was wrong, until that day. In all these cases there are always some winners, and some losers. Chart readers are most often the looser, while well-informed investors with patient are always the winners. In the case of Osicom, I believe that the patient long term investors will win in the end. I have done as much research as I felt was adequate to make myself comfortable. At this point I am confident and comfortable that IPO related SEC filing will be done prior to 27th. August. Just consider for a moment the scenario that the papers for the IPO are filed close to the end of the day. Consider a market cap for EN as small as 50% of that for ELON, and that Osicom keeps about 50% of the ownership. Along with that consider tradable rights for the Osicom shareholders. At what price the stock will open the next day? My guess would be that we should see 300 to 400 % increase overnight. That should begin to pay off the longs nicely. What about shorts? I hope that shorts, both reported as well as naked, would cover before that and move along. If not they will get what they deserve. And interesting thing is that all this should happen some time during next two weeks. Now, if on top of this Osicom got a larger GigaMux order, what would that do to my basic scenario. More fun I guess. It is always possible that I am wrong, but I am going with the my conviction. Disclaimer: I have made my decisions based on my own research, and I am satisfied with that. Do your own research and act accordingly. Good luck to all longs! Afaq Sarwar

To: David Wise who wrote (7975)	8/14/1998 12:51:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 10479

>> and other shorts who appear in mass could have caused some businesses to hesitate buying from Osicom? Yes! << I see, prospective Osicom customers have time to twiddle their thumbs all day and read on SI about how they shouldn't do business with Osicom. Yeah, right. >> Is it possible that all of this was contrived by Par to manipulate the stock himself? << All of what? >> I guess anything's possible, but it sure doesn't fit since he just invested about $1 million in this stock at higher prices. << Sometimes you have to spend a little money to make a little. Besides, what makes you think Par had any choice? If he didn't buy the convertible in a private transaction FIBRD probably would have caved when Coast Credit etc. converted and dumped the shares on the market! >> I hope we'll never know the answer. After all, with 41 networking companies testing the GigaMux << Now who is speading lies and misrepresentations? I don't think there are even 41 Gigamux's in existence, but on the off-hand chance that there are, I doubt 41 network operators actually have working units in hand. I think Osicom sent out some literature to 41 operators and maybe a handful of test units to others. Who cares? It went from about 20 to 41 and still the company hasn't announced any sales. Can we infer from the past that when Osicom is bragging about having 80 evaluators their stock will be down another 50%? >> and $90 million in contracts for the EN side, << This $90 million widget contract was all for the EN division? I don't think so, but I could be wrong. Anyway it's another hype contract with no details behind it. Obviously that's what the market believes. >> not to mention the recent EN partnerships with very big partners who apparently have faith in the Net+Arm, Osicom has actually never looked better. << Partnerships? Big partners? Give me details man. You mean like FORE? What a crock, FORE isn't a partner of Osicom, yet I hear bulls talk like they are. Why don't you call FORE up and ask them about their "partnership" with Osicom? >> Oh you keep forgetting to mention that their income has gone from about $12 million to as high as $120 million in just a few years. << Income??? The only income Osicom generates is income from selling stock. >> Yes, the profits have gone down as they rapidly grew, but they've invested in companies with award winning products. << Profits??? Snap out of it David, you can still get $4 a share for this pig. >> Or do you think PC Magazine and all the others trumped up those awards? << Explain to me how award winning products equate to higher stock prices and earnings???? EXPLAIN THAT ONE TO ME! >> If they can hang on through the Asian crises << Excuses, excuses. Four declining revenue quarters in a row. There are companies with more Asian exposure than Osicom who are turning a profit. >> and if Par has intentions of making Osicom successful << Sorry to tell you otherwise... >> Only two things could bring this company down; a stock manipulating CEO who currently has the respect and confidence of his Board, or the unscrupulous, constant assault by stock manipulating shorters, including the Barron's writer. << I choose answer A. What do I win? >> Hoping Par will choose to prove his management ability... << I think Par's management ability (ahem...lack thereof) is pretty self-evident. >> Keep it honest! << Keep Par and co. honest!

To: David Wise who wrote (7975)	8/14/1998 10:35:00 AM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10479

David, I answered your questions honestly, either with fact supported by documentation or my educated opinion. If you believe that something I said was inaccurate, point to it specifically and present a logical counter argument, not this general innuendo method you've used. I believe it is you who thinks that he can "outsmart" the market. The market is sending a clear message in the case of Osicom. It shows you up as being small minded that you belittle the Constitution of the United States to promote your agenda. It is indeed my right to post my opinion, despite the fact that you don't like it. You also show a basic misunderstanding of free speech when you say "Lies and fabrications are not constitutionally protected.". Perhaps you should take a remedial civics class. Now, please don't twist this to imply that I am lying, because I am being 100% honest when it comes to Osicom. "Is it possible that the barrage of attacks by all shorts (including Barron's Mr. Alpert) could cause the stock price to drop so low they can't raise additional operating funds?" They don't deserve to raise more operating funds. It would be better for everyone if those funds are invested in a company that will actually produce something other than promises. Every dollar that is diverted into Osicom to be squandered is a dollar that could have been put to work creating true value elsewhere, but will not. "s it possible that the Barron's author who has since lost his registration certification with the SEC" You are so desperate to discredit this man that you engage in the very behavior you abhor. You have no substantiation that he did anything other than letting his registration expire. I did a search at the SEC site. The only thing on his record was that action that was posted here. Further, you don't actually have any proof that it is the same man. Do you think there is only one William Alpert in the US? There are 40 phone lines in my area listed to folks named Alpert. It is not exactly an uncommon name. What proof do you have that it is the Bearon's author, other than it fits your agenda to discredit him? "and the vulture attack by yourself (since your conversion from # 2 supporter of the stock)" Vulture attack? Hmm, since I think Osicom is carrion, that could be said to be an accurate representation. "Is it possible that all of this was contrived by Par to manipulate the stock himself?" Is it possible that Osicom just isn't a good company, and that you are wrong? "You can bring up again that he sold a lot over the past year, and you don't have to mention the financial reasons that were given." Please. I asked several times after the buy was announced how the heck he was so broke last year that he had to let stock go in a margin call, but that he can come up with a million dollars less than a year later. This on a $60,000 a year salary. Why don't you explain where the cash came from? "But in the end, if Osicom folds, you'll most likely only have to answer to yourself. Were you honest?" I have been 100% honest in my postings on this thread. That you insinuate otherwise shows that you have no problem with using any method available to promote your long agenda. If Osicom folds, it will be because they are a poor business, not because someone sees that they are a poor business and posts that opinion on the company opinion thread. " Or did you relentlessly pursue the destruction of a small company with the nerve to dream of taking on the Ciscos?"" Cisco was the competitor last year. This year it's Ciena. Next year it will be whatever billion dollar market they choose to describe themselves as being in. "And did you do it by deliberately falsifying and fabricating answers? And do you enjoy knowing yourself?" There you go again. Trying to somehow insinuate that I am lying. Everything that I have posted is either fact supported by verifiable sources, or my educated and honest opinion. Yes, I very much enjoy knowing myself. "After all, with 41 networking companies testing the GigaMux and $90 million in contracts for the EN side, not to mention the recent EN partnerships with very big partners who apparently have faith in the Net+Arm" The 90 million dollar contract with the unnamed company on the other side of the globe? How convenient that we can't check up on the likelihood of that contract actually being fulfilled. If we don't know which company, we have to take it on faith in Osicom management. Management has done nothing to earn my faith. Now, which "partners" have faith in Net+Arm? All I've seen is a bunch of name dropping by the company. "Oh you keep forgetting to mention that their income has gone from about $12 million to as high as $120 million in just a few years. " Are you talking about revenues? Osicom has never generated a profit, much less $12 million. If you are referring to revenue, you are the one who is misleading people. The $12 million (actually, I think it was $6 million) was the revenue before they acquired the cast of pieces of these other companies. If you do a pro forma analysis assuming that Osicom had these divisions before they bought them, and extrapolate back you will find that revenues have consistently declined. "Or do you think PC Magazine and all the others trumped up those awards? " I think Price to earnings is a more meaningful measure of value than Price to awards. The fact is for all their awards they don't fall through to the bottom line. Heck, they don't even goose the top line. "If they can hang on through the Asian crises (which I'm sure you're aware has affected more that Osicom's bottom line) " Last year when looking forward we were led to believe the Asian crises would be beneficial to Osicom, because they manufacture in the far east, and would benefit from the strong dollar. Now that we see that nothing fell through, it has hurt them. It's the way it always is with Osicom, look forward and there are untold riches coming. Look back and there is a long list of excuses why those riches did not flow through to the balance sheet. "Xin and Pete are excellent, creative innovators of the highest standard." It hasn't fallen through to the bottom line. "Only two things could bring this company down" You forgot that Osicom could bring itself down because it's a lousy business with declining revenues, poor management (bordering on incompetence), and competition that executes well and buries them. But heck, it's easier to believe Oliver Stone type conspiracy theories rather than admit you made a bad investment choice. Barb