To: llamaphlegm who wrote (13525 ) 8/14/1998 9:52:00 AM From: H James Morris Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
Buy now before its to late. <For one, the amount of surplus global liquidity available for U.S. financial markets could encourage speculative overshooting in asset prices and the emergence of a bubble economy. In fact, there are already some signs of this. The stock market boom has encouraged the household savings rate to plunge to the lowest level in American history. The mutual fund industry now has more than $5 trillion of assets and is larger than the banking system. Before the recent market correction, the price/earnings multiple of Nasdaq excluding Microsoft, Intel and Cisco was about 90. The consumption effects of America's buoyant asset markets are exactly what the world economy needs now, but they could set the stage for a hard landing if some future event causes capital flows to change directions. America's strong economy has also fostered a dangerous complacency in Congress about the need to bolster the capital of the International Monetary Fund. Congressmen forget that the IMF is the only global institution capable of playing the role of lender of last resort for countries experiencing sudden liquidity shocks. During the past year, the IMF has distributed such a large volume of money to Asia and Russia that it now has only about $20 billion to $25 billion of surplus liquidity left. Should falling commodity prices and abrupt changes in capital flows threaten such important countries as Brazil, Mexico or South Africa, the IMF would not have the means to save them from ruin. In many ways, the current American economic environment is similar to the Reagan boom of the mid-1980s. Like then (albeit for different reasons), the U.S. is a major capital importer, in part because of economic crises elsewhere. But however advantageous this situation may be in the short term, it creates the risk of financial excesses and imbalances that could prove destabilizing later on. As a result, U.S. policy makers must confront two challenges. They must fine-tune monetary policy with sufficient public relations flair to contain the risk of a bubble economy. And, just as important, they must take effective action through IMF capital expansion, fast-track trade legislation and other policies to ensure that the U.S. does not forever remain the world economy's spender of last resort.>