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Gold/Mining/Energy : Napier International Technologies Inc. (T.NIR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AL who wrote (1314)	9/2/1998 3:11:00 AM
From: David in Ontario	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2444

AL - just following up on your numbers with my 2 AM numbers: This is just a very crude attempt at some numbers for the next 12 months for US sales that I'm guessing may be around $82 million (gross). The Halogenated Solvents Industry Alliance Inc give total methylene chloride (MC) sales in the US in 1996 as 129,000 metric tons (via Gino): hsia.org The makeup of SV-35 from what I understand is about 50% water (prime solvent) + 50% 'stuff'. So how much does a 44 gallon barrel of SV-35 weigh? I'll guess that the 'stuff' has a specific gravity that's half that of water. A cubic foot of water weights 62.4 pounds - therefore a cubic foot of SV-35 weighs 46.8 pounds and a barrel of SV-35 then weighs about 275 pounds (i..e., 5.88 cubic feet per 44 gallons x 46.8 pounds per cubic foot). If so then one metric ton (or tonne) of SV-35 represents say 8 barrels. [ Ps. Does anyone know the specific gravity of SV-35? Is it on the label of the 5 litre pail that people here have purchased - or mentioned somehere in the patent papers? ]. Furthermore, I've also been told that what takes 5 barrels of MC will only take 2 of SV-35 - so there needs to be an 0.4 'efficacy' conversion thrown in as well.. If SV-35 can capture 25% of the US MC market in the next 12 months that represents ~103,000 barrels of SV-35 (25% of 129,000 tonnes MC used per year x 8 barrels of SV-35 per tonne x 0.4 efficacy conversion). Using my number of $800 per barrel for SV-35 (I think it's more than that) then this represents gross US sales of ~$82 million (i.e., 103,000 barrels x $800 per barrel). I won't attempt net sales, profits, P/E's, share price per $10 million sales - this early in the morning. Nor will I attempt world wide sales - nor say too much about ICI's new paint plant that they opened up in China recently that will have a capacity of 25 million litres (of paint): ici.com As MC is being 'discouraged' from continued use via regulation and is being phased out - my figure of 25% for SV-35's penetration into the US market may be grow to be higher in the first twelve months. Thus far SV-35 will be sold via 3 sources (Napier, ICI and K-G) plus others will be partnered in time. In addition, there will be no problem meeting demand. An ICI person told me a while back that they would have no problem meeting ANY level of demand. Furthernore, I know who the potential Asian partner is that wants to link up with Napier - hahahaha. If we don't get that statement soon from Napier commenting on the post-News share decline and all that funny business + numbers going forward thrown in - then I'm going to say who it is - it's a biggie :-) These are 2 AM numbers - so please excuse me if I've made a mistake. Till later, David.