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Technology Stocks : Noise Cancellation Technology (NCTI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David L. Wasylenko who wrote (2268)	8/16/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: TA2K	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2775

After reading Edgar on Friday, I'm left with the following observations and conclusions: 1) During the last six months prior to June 30, 1998, over 15,000,000 new common shares were issued resulting from the conversions of preferred stock. While the stock may have declined for other reasons as well, the selling pressure generated by those new shares coming on the market surely had a substantial impact in pushing price down; 2) Edgar clearly states that over $4,367,000 in preferred stock remained after June 30, to be yet converted. At $.62 per share (a guess), that sum would lead to an additional 7,000,000 shares flowing into the market from conversions. Note we're talking here about post June 30; 3) I've tallied all volume since June 30. Total volume has been 35,220,500. Assuming about half are buys, sells amounted to around 17,610,250. The number of potential converted shares as a percentage of total sells is 7,000,000/17,610,250 = 40%. Seems to me quite conceivable these conversions could have already taken place; 4) Thursday and Friday were exceptionally low volume days. We haven't seen many two days like this for the past year. The closest we've had is April 23-24. The point to be made here is that what we've seen is quite a rare occurrence. This rare occurrence leads me to believe that the preferred stock conversions are in fact over with (for now); 5) The let-up of selling pressure due to the presumed stop in conversions will almost certainly result in a near-term increase in the selling price of NCTI (using economics terminology, there's been a leftward shift in the supply curve); 6) As the NCTI price increases, say even three ticks, up to $.71, there will be those potential investors in the market that will think NCTI may have a chance of getting above $1.00, and thus beating the de-listing conundrum. This anticipation will cause some additional buying of NCTI. The additional buying will actually accelerate NCTI higher toward that $1.00 target; 7) Positive news coming from NCT will only accelerate the upward momentum, and in fact would probably cause a pop similar to what we saw 4/29/98. If such a pop occurs, the subsequent retracement will not be as extensive as we saw back then, as we ostensibly no longer have the 'conversions' problem pushing us back down (as we had then). Conclusions: The following few days should be extremely interesting for us. Price could move either way, but I tend to think price will make some advances. You may agree or disagree with the forgoing analysis. Regardless, I would greatly appreciate reading your intelligent response. Your thought-out response is basically the only reason I post to this thread. Nicholas