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Gold/Mining/Energy : Harken Energy Corporation (HEC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: drjoedoom who wrote (3407)	8/14/1998 1:33:00 PM
From: David Shie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5504

First, some background info: 8/13/98 Press release... "Harken's Islero 1 well should be drilled to a planned total depth of 8,100 feet. The Islero 1 is a wildcat test of the Upper Cretaceous age Cimarrona formation. The well is expected to require about 60 days to drill plus another 30 days to test." 8/13/98 Press release #2... "Harken Energy Corporation (Amex: HEC)("Harken") announced today that it plans to purchase up to 5,000,000 shares of its outstanding common stock during the next three (3) months. The Company will purchase the shares from time to time on the open market or through private transactions." Zeev's "visual explanation" of the floorless... exchange2000.com Hey, this whole floorless thing creates some room for creativity, no? The powers to be at HEC by now would have recognized any potential "threat" from alleged "floorless bandits". So...suppose the whole stock buyback thing is a "floorless bandit trap" (follow me on this one...). Now we know that HEC intends on buying back 5mil shares within the next 3 months. Funny how well that corresponds with the expected release of test results from Islero#1, which HEC has touted as one of its most promising prospects. The buyback should at least serve to stabilize the price of the stock over the near term and I firmly believe that the stock price will steadily rise as we approach the expected release date due to speculative buying interest. According to Zeev's theory, HEC's recent downtrend is caused at least in part by the shorting activity of "floorless bandits," who, assuming they started shorting when HEC was trading in the $6-$7 range, is now in at about 2x shares from their initial short position (I get this straight from Zeev's "visual explanation"). Now come November, when HEC will almost certainly be trading above $4 (and the "bandits" losing money on any short positions established below $4), HEC scores a substantial hit on Islero#1, and the stock price jumps even more (perhaps above the initial $6-$7 range of the initial short position), and HEC decides to CLOSE OUT the "floorless" positions with cash. Boy, these "bandits" will certainly be in for the ride of their lives, for they suddenly find themselves with a substantial short position which need to be covered (they will certainly be receiving margin calls, as they at this point would no longer possess the, as Zeev puts it, "piece of paper in his hand saying that he owns the floorless") and the panic buying they instigate will drive prices even higher. And guess what HEC does with the 5mil shares which it buys back at these firesale prices? You guessed it! HEC sells it to the bandits and pockets the difference! Kind of neat, no? And don't worry about HEC coming up with the cash to finance the rat trap; if the bandits really do exist, HEC will find the means. After all, there's shorts to be squeezed and money to be made <vbg>! Just a hypothetical situation, but no less so than any of the other hypotheticals posted thus far. You can tell I have too much time on my hands when I start devoting energy to this "floorless" issue. By the way, it's interesting to note how Zeev suddenly starts posting left and right as soon as HEC shows the least sign of upward momentum (8 posts yesterday, 3 so far today). Again, I won't second guess his motives, but the fact that he tirelessly inundates us with the same arguments time and again does nothing for his credibility here. David

To: drjoedoom who wrote (3407)	8/14/1998 6:35:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5504

Joe, For a Colombian oil field to be bankable it first has to be "declared commercial" by Ecopetrol. For it to be declared commercial you need to have at least a couple of wells that found pay and tested commercial amounts of production, and I believe you need to have a pipeline connected to your field and let the wells produce into the pipeline for at least a couple of months. I believe the new Colombian president is increasing the comfort level of energy finance firms lending on Colombian projects. One key development I'm waiting to see announced is the Colombian approval for HEC to build a pipeline out to its Bolivar wells. IMO this will be critical to getting things going since those wells are monsters and once those babies are cranking away Mikel can go to the bank and walk out with an immense wad of cash. Hopefully the new president has not totally disrupted the governmental operations over there and HEC will get this approval soon.