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To: DJBEINO who wrote (3803)	8/14/1998 2:02:00 PM
From: patrick tang	Respond to of 9582

IMHO, the runnup over the last month was due to: 1. Pent up demand when everybody waited for WIN98. 2. Inventory par down by a few boxmakers 3. Orders for back-to-school/August sales. If the price does not go down, which I personally do not believe it will, we'll see more price rise comes middle of Sept when the X'mas orders start to go through. I also personally do not believe the Koreans have not shut down that much. If they limit their plant shut downs to old 16M fabs and assembly areas (one 64M = four 16M for packaging), minimum decrease in bit output. I just do not believe they would limit their production and let Micron take market share at the higher price, history of 1997 being the guide. Having said that, I think a mini shortage might start developing when we get to <0.25um - the ones who win are the ones who have the money to move to deep UV. The losers are the ones stuck with older litho equipment. As such, the final 'shortage' price will settle somewhere between the manufacturing cost for producing the two versions. If I am right, that timing should be around Q1 '99. patrick