Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Bower who wrote (5559)	8/14/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 9980

Ron, RE: your comments: "If this is so [that the speculators have helped the Japanese], then why are so many Japanese exporters going bankrupt?" and "In my perfect world, market speculators don't exist." This isn't a "perfect world". If it were, then the "speculators" wouldn't be able to profit. They would lose all of their money if they tried to "attack" a sound currency, and, if they were reasonable, they wouldn't even try. The exporters that are going bankrupt are most likely doing so because they leveraged themselves too highly, basing their calculations on an exchange rate which was itself "artificial". Perhaps some unwittingly did this, I don't know. But the Japanese and Asian banks and governments aren't angels in all this, beset by evil speculator devils. The Japanese bubble in the 80s the general Asian bubble in the 90s and their lending practices were speculations in themselves--they thought the party could go on forever, and it couldn't. In that sense, the speculators are doing them all--and those who try at least not base their business decisions on outlandish valuations or simple corruption--a favor in ending it.

To: Ron Bower who wrote (5559)	8/14/1998 4:34:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Dear Ron, I agree on some points: this is SI, not SS (silicon speculator). However, regarding the exporters, the weak yen is benefitting them mightily. Those that are going bankrupt are suffering from competitive pricing pressures, tighter margins and weak regional demand. This is especially true for companies involved in infrastructure development. Just check out Fletcher Challenge of N.Z.'s recent group results. Also, CAT and DE here in the US are finally showing the negative effects. Still, Japan's only way out of this mess is to export like mad, not just reform the banking system. Also, I assume that you are a very risk-tolerant investor if you put money in Asia, so you should expect volatility. I, too think HK and China stocks will be fine investments 5-to-10 years from now, but I'm not going to try to guess the bottom until real light is at the end of the tunnel, and I only see another train coming........