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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: set who wrote (3185)	8/14/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Shahar, we have broken the neckline on the NYa, dow and spx and now have made ABC rallies that failed the neckline. We are sitting right on November 12th, crunch time. We either test 7-8000 area in the next week or so or we go up and make a right shoulder at the April highs. On the bearish side, we are below the 200 on the DOW and NYA. We weren't in October. MSFT is approaching the pinnacle of an indecision triangle (as is the ndx) on 50% average volume today. bb

To: set who wrote (3185)	8/16/1998 8:11:00 PM
From: set	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

comments on CPQ: tscn.com a fairly superficial and easy observation to make about CPQ at this point is that it has tended to follow a simple pattern of three surges, the first two small and last more sizeable. Then it dumps, makes a little hump (the dump and hump pattern :)) and repeats the process. In the current case, beginning in late July at just below $30, the pattern has changed subtly but notably. in this case traders have gotten ahead of themselves and, IMO, ruined the pattern. For starters, there is no little hump before the process gets started. Also, at the current moment, the consolidation off the second surge is inadequate. There is not enough turn over. This pattern is overused, overly anticipated, and is breaking down. I believe at this point there will not be a surge into the mid 40s as would be suggested by the large and tempting upside down H&S, where the bottom of the head is down at $24. Instead, this has turned into a simple rising wedge in which prices should not exceed 38 or so, give or take a false spike. This thing will be puttable soon. I even think it is right now if the target is modest. BWDIK and all that - love to hear a contrary view. Shahar