To: Bruce A. Brotnov who wrote (3476 ) 8/14/1998 5:12:00 PM From: Walk Softly Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Bruce.... Still, breadth line continues to improve.... i.e., decliners - advancers continues to decrease (it is less and less negative)..... Jerry Favors has also spotted/confirmed this same trend I mentioned days ago.... this may offer little comfort to many of us die hard optimists but when linked with "THE LOWEST 30 YEAR BOND RATE SINCE I DON'T KNOW WHEN"...... making a bear market is going to be difficult.... classic capitulations require classic inefficient markets (we haven't had one since 1987 the beginning of the PC/inet era was just around the corner)..... we just don't have any good old classic inefficiencies anymore.... too many PC's on the inet.... too many ways to play short.... and, unless the market it about to define a whole new trading range to the downside... AIQ still points to an uptrend in the offing..... remember, in the midst of a range AIQ signals are uncertain.... so, the positive signals I'm receiving are nil if we are in the midst of a range.... if, however, we're at the low end of the range, as I believe, we can turn up soon..... Henry would probably say we're at an inflection point for busting up or down.... Kudlow just reminded me that treasuries are now below the fed funds rate indicating a tight money poicy (inverted yield curve, short term rates should be lower than long term rates because of lower risk, but they're higher, that's wacky)..... the Fed has to lower the fed funds interest rates.... once again the Fed having to play catch up with reality.... look at commodities and precious metals.... at staggering lows...... these are powerful underpinnings associated with rallies and bull markets..... maybe we're seeing something new here???? shorts in the housing sector got to be nervous even with a potential bear in the offing.......
