To: SecularBull who wrote (58341 ) 8/14/1998 5:18:00 PM From: jhg_in_kc Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
to all. this whole week has been FUBAR. I expected Dell to be at least 10 points higher than where it is. I suppose we all did (except for the interlopers from CPQ today; if their product is anything like the shareholders who visited today, the company is a dog). I worry about the market going into a serious smash-down. My favorite economist, Edward Yardeni (he of the wildly bullish New Era School) is gloomy. we may have to weather a storm. FYI see yardeni.com Dell behaving this way only days before what by all accounts will be a excellent earnings report is disturbing. I sold all my S&P 500 Index Fund shares and went into cash. I don't want to own the averages just now. I will stick with two companies, Dell and Berkshire. If they tank, then the whole global economy is in deep kimshee. It seems to me also that the market can always surprise you, and this time we had the run up before earnings centered on the stockholder's meeting, that is, the people who "run" big money chose that time to speculate and are now waiting on the sidelines for solid evidence of earnings before starting Dell back up. All this of course is ultimately unknowable. But I know this now; you cant predict all market patterns even on a stock which seemed as eminently predictable as Dell. I thought Dell always ran before earnings; that is obviously not the case this quarterly report. Maybe in time we'll know the full story. As much as I hate to do it I have to succumb to Warren Buffett; he is right; own a company, not a stock. All the rest of the speculation, buying things that expire worthless to make quick profits based on predicting the future of a manic depressive market is a waste of time; any successes are due to sheer luck and being a nimble seller; it is frustrating attempting to know the unknowable. Buffett's advice would be; own Dell because you want to own a fine company with great earnings prospects as far as you can see for many years out. If it goes down, you should be happy since you have a chance to buy more of it. You should only be happy when a stock goes up if you are planning to sell it. easy for him to say. Dellheads, ask yourselves, if we are headed into a short-lived deflation and market crash, do you still want to own Dell rather than something else? If the answer is yes, then we must not whine. jhg