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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (27775)	8/14/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: sand wedge	Respond to of 95453

Zaphod, Good to see you back on the thread. I'm just laying back, waiting for the dust to clear on the drillers. I did pick up some SEV and UTI at these prices. I'm off to the east coast for some RnR...(and to get out of the heat!) Take Care

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (27775)	8/15/1998 12:28:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael Happel & Beeblebrox....comments - Beeblebrox - by the way Bollinger now is saying buy the service & driller stocks as the overall market is in a correction mode and they are a contrarian value play... Michael; While I obviously suffer from irrational exuberance time to time... My main point is one must change here to survive. I acknowledged my hits from what I call the ''June Swoon'' and I was forced to become an active trader here; which I have done successfully in other sectors that I am much more familiar with. My primary emphasis here is that, it IS NOT the time to be buying accross the board here; yes - we can go lower and on some individual stocks much lower. But, the case has been made for us being in a ''basing'' mode here. We have seen support here - we've had a double bottom and maybe on the verge of a few small spurts with 5-7% bounces above or below current levels in my opinion. The key here is; we will have these 1 day ''dumps'' in individual stocks that are disproportionate to the sector presenting exactly the type of buying or more importantly - ''TRADING'' opportunities that I am referring to. This is unequivocally a ''trading'' & individual stock picking mode here in the patch presently...BUT, it is also a tremendous profit opportunity as well. Risky yes - but these 15% 1 day blowoffs are the price to pay if you want to make nice 1-2 day ''hits'' here. JPM/ JP Morgan got my full undivided attention as the Bank/Financial area is my home... This was a traders nirvanna here and I'm playing another takeover play in a financial stock where I also hope to be ''out'' within a short period of time to bring even more cash to the oil patch. I initially looked at the patch as a contrarian - value buying, bottom fishers dream. I had only actively traded the Financial's as these I know; and when I invest in another sector I am basically a simple buy & hold investor. My obsession here with my ''white whale'' (the oilpatch) has led me through the school of hard knocks to where I am comfortable trading here as well. - not the preferred method of learning a sector as the ''tuition'' was quite expensive... One can make a few 8-12% one/two day trades here and raise some cash for ongoing trading, helping to offset prior losses and simultaneously keeping some stock as long term holds. This is what I'm doing personally. Everytime I ''daytrade'' these 1 day blow offs like BDI, OMNI, FGII, RON, RIG, EVI etc. and make a little profit; I keep a few shares in the long term portfolio and move this extra cash into the trading pool. Also; the minute I see these bounces disappear off these 1 day blowoffs - I will eliminate this trading technique for now... I then will have no problem on waiting for momenteum to clearly change. Douglas made a great point which is exactly what I am doing. My buy on EVI was not triggered by monitoring EVI specifically to day trade it. I put in a limit buy order $2 below yesterdays close as I wanted to own EVI on any dip from here... When I saw the pretty incredible volume & sell off; I decided to buy down on $2 intervals as anywhere in this range I was comfortable holding EVI longterm at these prices. Douglas; stated he sets a point approx 20% or so below his prior buy or cost basis in which to average down. This is precisely what I do. It is obviously more valid the lower we go - as we are approaching the ''zero'' factor on some stocks ! A 10% dip is not enough to average down on imho; 20% allows you to be with in 10% of the potential bottom on that individual stock; and when we have a range of $18 to $70 on EVI - the ''Hand Grenade Theory of just being ''close'' to the bottom; is valid. With a potential $52 run up - I'll take being with in 10% of the bottom anyday... I think a decent case can be made here for a basing bottom. Last fridays accross the board buying demonstrated the streets acknowledgement of the values here and to some extent their view of a bottom. But; it is on an individual stock basis, day to day here. We saw that funds are quick on the trigger and any earnings disappointments or negative news will trigger a selloff. FLC is an opportunity here also - as no analysts have come out with a valuation on the CDG/FLC combo.. buying on any substantial dips here has the huge upside potential off the first positive analyst release of the new combo and any valuation/earnings projections. MDCO went below $9 and now has support much higher than that and I don't think it will ever again go to those levels - a case of an individual stock that has bottomed. FGII had a ''bottom'' base of support and had a decent little bounce here which was a trading opportunity that allowed me to take a little profit and spin off into EVI which I think is unequivocally the best buy in the patch as of today - under $20. I was able to trade 1-2 day bounces on OMNI, DRQ, TBDI, BDI etc. here lately. I am in and out of cash - setting aside approx 50% of my portfolio for aggressive (and risky) short term trading. I keep putting a little away and looking for the next opportunity. If the natural gas drilling holds up at current levels and we get any move in natural gas - irregardless to a crude move - I am leaning toward UTI, BDI & PTEN as the values and good trading opportunities as well. In closing; as far as calling THE exact bottom; it is not important. We are at levels that it no longer matters. -yes; the arguement of ''that has been said before'' will keep the emotional buyers away, but not the logical buyers. From a shear mathematical basis; EVI at $30 vs. EVI at sub $20 are 2 entirely different universes... Anyone with some ''big ones'' can and will make a ton on EVI. We are looking at a 50% profit going to $30 - EVI at a target price of $30 !!!! - allmost unimaginable... you must have faith in the core mathematical values here. I t doesn't matter if EVI goes $3-4 lower from here - it is a given it will be $30 in even the most conservative of models sooner or later. I'll be pricing calls Monday - one could also arguably hold EVI on margin; at 8% +/- margin interst for a year; one could sit on EVI a long time and make some pretty incredible returns... It will happen here Michael; we WILL ultimately look back at this period in the patch just like people do to the Bank/S&L stock crash of nearly a decade ago and lament on why didn't I buy...it was such a no-brainer.... the PE's were so ridiculous... they were cash machines....how could they have sold off that low-what were people thinking ?.... This is a textbook lesson on why so few people make the really big money off of these cyclical bottom reversals; because the emotions, the near paniac and the herd mentality is soooo hard to buck. To go against the grain here takes some money in which to ride out the storms, some guts or even a degree of reckless abandon, and an obsession with detail, information and being quick on the button... Simple buying and holding here will be richly rewarding - we all know it will; but it is so hard psychologically to trade or buy into the face of adversity. Once again one of lifes classic lessons is valid here in the 'patch; it matters not so much how often you get knocked down, but how many times you get back up ! When you believe with every fragment of your being, when you just know-absolutely know it is the right thing to do - simply just do it. ...and the next play looks to be off any irrational over reaction to Clinton's testimony Monday/Tuesday -- if we get an overall market selloff and it bleeds into the OSX stocks - I'll be a trader there as well. The anticipation of events; like a trading opportunity off of the Clinton fiasco or the potential pop in FLC off of the first CDG/FLC analyst reports and earnings projections; with both an entry an exit strategy all ready in place, is another key element to survival in the patch. Good Luck & lets be carefull out there... PS: I'd much rather see insider buying like Holloway buying $1 million worth of FGII with HIS damn cash and not a stock buyback with ''my/shareholder'' money ! See DRQ for insider buyback confidence.