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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike from La. who wrote (27784)	8/14/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: VLAD	Respond to of 95453

I always thought that the plan for making money in the market was to buy low and sell high. IMO we currently are not low but VERY low. Questions to be asked include do you want to buy low, buy VERY low or buy bottom. IMO those who wanted to buy low bought in the beginning of July. Those who wanted to buy VERY low bought in this month. Those who wanted to pick the bottom are still waiting for it. Maybe the bottom was today but I thought that was the case many weeks ago. Absolute bottom buyers should follow the following rules: Place your order when you think you picked the bottom. Then ask yourself how much pain you can tolerate if your pick of the bottom is wrong. Place your stop order somewhere above that pain level so you can sleep well at night. Its that simple. If some of us had done this months ago we would have taken some loses but be sleeping better at night. Those who took a small hit 2 months ago can now take their money and buy in at much lower levels than before. Don't buy a stock because you think it is cheap and was much higher 4 to 12 months ago. Buy it because you can afford to if that same stock becomes even cheaper. VLAD

To: Mike from La. who wrote (27784)	8/15/1998 12:28:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Mike, As an energy industry person, I agree with Mr. Leeb on a number of points-I'll note them. First in this pricing downturn, things are different. The price downturn in 1986 caught the industry totally by surprise. It was a slaughter as every company was overstaffed, and highly leverage because it was the "thing to do" to carry extra debt in the 80's (Fear of the Milliken Raiders). Now in the 90's the oil industry and oil service industry have survived savage downsizings, since the price of oil fell in the 80's from $40 to $10/bbl, and gas prices fell from $3.50mcf to $1.00 mcf. We are a whole lot leaner and meaner. Look at the finding cost/bbl and how far it has fallen in the last 13 years. Indeed most companies right now are still making modest profits- yup at $12.00/bbl oil. Not that the tempo of activty has not fallen in the industry- but we can wait out these conditions a long, long time. (Actually most majors use $15bbl oil as their planning price for project economics...). Indeed also look for companies to use acquisitions in order to juice flat profit margins.... On the oil service company side there is no panic either. Indeed I have spoken with a number of drilling and service company reps over the last few weeks. This time they will not just keep rigs running to earn cash flow- they do not need to as debt levels here too, are much much lower than in the 80's. They'll stack extra equipment and just wait. As for the conditions of fields, yes many major fields in prominent basins such as the North Sea and the Middle East are maturing and moving beyond their original primary drive stages- that is there may not be a lot of upside left in these fields. Now they can keep current production levels with good reservoir management- yes, for a long time. But where will the incremental upside barrels be produced? Well West Africa, Central Asia, and Latin America, primarily, and also offshore Norway, and maybe Russia. Now how do you get the incremental barrels? You have to drill wells and the service them..... Also you are right that the price of oil is important. it may take awhile, but we'll see if crude supplies start falling back into equilibrium- especially after Asia turns....... BTW- I note that one former bull after another on this Thread is turning bearish- so maybe we are nearing a bottom Sincerely, Doug F.

To: Mike from La. who wrote (27784)	8/15/1998 1:22:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Mike from LA ...here we go again.... papa riqui has at least presented a logical basis for his beliefs; for which I respect and will not criticize. But you my friend; are calling the ''pot - black''... "CLOWN" ? --- I saw only one clown and it was Mike from La..... are you serious ? Averaging down from last April/ May is one thing; but the second writer is basically saying ''Merry Christmas'' to those in cash who will utlimately buy in here. If you think serious, substantial money will not be made here from these levels of EVI $19, RON $28 RIG $30 etc.... then in all due respect; you are simply out of touch here imho. You would have to be calling for the pent-ultimate total collapse of the modern industrialized world and a total world wide depression/economic collapse for these stocks not to move substantially higher from here -- quite simply Oil would have to be entering a PERMANENT new paradigm of longterm or permanent $8 ranges...for you to be right. You are allmost singularly alone in the cold bearish world if YOU are predicting that. No One free from ''chemical or physical restraint'' is saying what you are. Please put some short money to work here - it would sure be a shame for you to miss out on your unique predictions... if you are not up to speed on the concept of the second article on depletion of reserves and the aging of fields - which is the entire basis of the new surge in the GOM deepwater - then you have given me a good ''chuckle''... are you for real ? You have just posted two of the most common sense articles one could read - and you don't get it ....?