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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgen Trautmann who wrote (3452)	8/15/1998 3:52:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

JT; RE:" FYI " Thanks for posting your trades, Juri - you know we all have a high regard for your market sense. >1/3 invested... Other than the really lousy (option) trades I made back in May, when I was dazed and confused and had no business judgement whatsover, (and which I have completely written off), I am about 1/6 invested - nibbling on some blue chips (stocks) - in a pyramid, buying-down pattern of accumulation. >Considering about being your contraindicator... There are only two indicators that mean anything right now: (1) what has not fallen with the markets - ie., stocks like DAI and WMT, AAPL and CSCO; and (2) kapital inflows toward equity funds - ie., investor sentiment. People still feel, Jurgen, that they can make money in the stock market, "...if they put it in the right place" - ie., retail or drug stocks or certain tech stocks or bonds or something. What this means is that there is still an optimism of sorts here; people have not given up... they do not feel that there is no exit. The only sector of the US economy that is still functioning is the American consumer; high employment is putting USD wages into the hands of Mr. and Mrs. American Worker. They are buying clothing, household goods, groceries and drugs/health care. Thousands of WWII generation people are becoming infirm or dying this year. The BabyBoomers like me are either taking care of their 70-something parents or inheriting their houses/estates after they pass on. The stock market has only indirectly affected most workers, so far - but they have become wary because of what they see on the television news, and what they see in their monthly retirement-account statements. They will probably put off larger purchases, such as cars - but the real estate housing market is still very hot because of the low kost of kapital - and Americans are very mobile, moving around and "trading up" their homes. Commercial real estate has peaked, though. It is impossible for most industrial companies to raise prices. Yet, the high employment rate makes it impossible for them to reduce wages. This can be sustained so long as basic raw material costs continue to deflate worldwide. Ironically, when commodity prices do recover, it is likely that employment/wages will start to go back down, killing off the last functioning sector of the American economy. -Steve