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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Philipp who wrote (24344)	8/15/1998 9:03:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Philip, >>>>>>>>>> My question to you is whether you really believe that, if the SPX breaks through those levels on Monday/Tuesday and reach your minimum target of 1030, it will stop before 960? If it closes below the 1050 area, it will have broken all sorts of support lines, long-term trendlines, that I would consider that a clear crash signal. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< You are correct that heading lower will break support lines and trendlines and would indicate lower lows, but it does not mean that the bottom will drop out immediately. Many feel that 8400 and 1060 was the crucial level; however the crucial level per my analysis is the 8000-8200 range and I mentioned previously that there are 2 support lines at 8200 and 8050. In other words, I feel that their crucial levels are a tad high, and even if my levels are broken it does not mean we go straight down immediately. Per my analysis the most critical technical support is around 8175, which for eaze I call 8200, and the most important psychological support for now is 8000, since a break of that indicates that we just went negative for the year and it is a thousand point mark on the DOW. >>>>>>>>Is it possible that your 5 of 1 wave is not as extended as you predict? I could see a subwave count that has already completed 2, 3, 4 and 5 on Friday. We could then interpret that as a triple bottom. A good foundation for a rally.<<<<<<<< I am using my short-term analysis which is right now in the lower-mid range and still has a ways to go before hitting the bottom which becomes my CLASS BUY signal. I am making an assumption that with all this negativity in the market my short-term technicals will get to a CLASS BUY status before turning up. It is a fair assumption since in a normal market, without all this negativity, such technicals normally will get that low. So I made a calculation that the soonest the DOW can reach CLASS BUY status, it would need to drop 200-300 points over the next 2 days, which would bring it to the 8250-8150 range. That would be the minimun the DOW would need to drop, and if it drops lower the CLASS BUY signal just gets stronger. Statistically, if it is not a true bear market, the success rate of these CLASS BUYS are extremely high, in the 95% range. Of course it could be argued that we are now in a bear market, but I am using greater than a 15% decline in the DOW and SPX as my parameters to determine a bear market. Hope I made some sense.

To: Philipp who wrote (24344)	8/15/1998 9:16:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Philipp: After Thursday's closing price and volume market action, I expected Friday to be up in the AM. However, I expect S/MMs to conceal their preparation for the move up a little more than they did. I am learning to expect much less concealment in the "new era". I anticipated a slight follow through to the down side and then a reversal. Due to dynamic accumulations at the close Thursday, I expected the market to stay up longer than it did and make its move down near the close. However, the sharp price run-up facilitated distribution quickly and at 11:30am EDT, I posted noting an expectation that the decline was beginning. I had to leave my trading desk at that time for the day. Now, based on price action and volume at Friday's close, once again I expect Monday AM to be up. If it opens down, I would anticipate an early reversal. As for the rest of the day, I don't know. I will be watching the price and volume action after the open. I still believe the overall market is going down further. A rally of some significance is needed soon, to give confidence to the dipsters and keep the Bulls expectations alive. Bear market or just correction?...I do not know. Overall, my stuff still points down, for now! BWDIK Regards, LG EDIT: Last week my SHT MACD_OSC momentum reversed from down to up on most US market indices. No short term buy signal yet!

To: Philipp who wrote (24344)	8/15/1998 11:33:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Phil, The Magic #'s are 1012SPX ,8004 Dow & 495 OEX. These numbers will absolutely, positively, prove to hold this current decline. These #'s are double confirmed by two large chart patterns that are so reliable, you could hang your hat on either of them every time. Not even the worst sentiment and panic selling will drive the market through these numbers. And their probability of being met (within 3 S&P points, 25 Dow pts. & 1.5 OEX pts.) is also near 100%, so any buying in this market before they are met, will prove to be futile and hurtful to the buyer. The break of the recent support will set the market in motion to these #'s. Don Sew thinks it (the break) will happen Monday, and so do I, based on my wave count read that we are right in the middle of this 5th wave down from the 7/20 top. As I've said in earlier posts... The crashes of '29 and '66 occurred in the 5th wave off the peak. There were no interim rallys to speak of before those crashes happened. In '29, the end of the 5th wave off the peak leveled the market by 47% from the top. In '66, it was 25%. At the targets given above, this current debacle will have fallen a relatively mild 15% when the targets have been achieved, and the reversal back up begins. From these levels (1012/8004/495), I expect a 50% retracement back to the highs before the next onslaught of selling begins. This will target 1101.50 SPX, 8685 Dow & 538 OEX for the relief rally, which should complete by early September. Then we begin the next giant wave of selling that will take the market just below 900SPX, 6800 Dow & 435 OEX before the next substantial rally begins. These lower targets should be met by the end of October. On the bright side, this will only bring the market back to the Januarly lows... so what's all this commotion about anyway? <g> The SPX and Dow will still finish the year in positive territory after the ensuing rally brings relief to the bulls. We'll be OK...won't we? ;o) Regards, David P.S. I expect that if Monday is a down day that breaks this recent support (and yeah, I'm confident it will), then the most likely time for the 1012/8004/495 target to be met is Tuesday at 10am. I will notify if this changes.