To: valuehunter who wrote (10854 ) 8/15/1998 12:29:00 PM From: James L. Fleckenstein Read Replies (3) | Respond to
Valuehunter, you ask poignant questions. RSNA is the largest source of sales in the $40 billion dollar industry that is radiology. Most sales are made either at or in conjunction with the meeting. That is why it is such a BFD. Now, specifically as regards Fonar, the RSNA will either be a success or a flop depending upon what scrutiny reveals (scrutiny is what goes on at and after the meeting--docs don't buy these things on whims--lots of DD is done). I've been to about 10 of these shows and frequently as a subset of a buying group. To be successful, Fonar (or any vendor) will need to have the following: 1) FDA clearance to sell what is on the floor. Without this the presentation is at best highly interesting but won't sell squat. 2) A really good set of pictures to brag on and stand around while the hawking goes on. Absence of these is fatal. Docs know that the images that vendors show are the absolute best possible and not even necessarily typical. But the fact that the best of the best are shown, that is the standard against which your product's first impression is judged. 3) An installed base is also highly critical. Absence of at least several, and better yet dozens, out in the field means there is something either wrong or potentially wrong. Ingenuity alone will not sell. Judging by last year's run-up and sell-off centering around the RSNA, that is what you can expect this year if what is promised is another Earth-shattering invention that you cannot buy today and cannot be shipped next week. Fonar's stock moves have all benn blunted since the $4 pop as we all wise up and expect shorter excursions up and down (with a downward long-term bias). Thus, I would expect a blunted run-up this year as more of the same as last year is expected. Personally, I will be putting money in at these low prices to run-up, walking into the show-room floor with my phone in hand ready to unload if it's more pie in the sky. Of course, this whole scenario wrongly assumes that nothing changes from now till then. I expect the highly anticipated (and overdue) announcements of the rumored PPMs, sales, and 10K may change everything: If 20 Quad 12000s are in the field by November, it won't matter what happens at the meeting as the stock should be well over 3 by then.
