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To: j g cordes who wrote (49947)	8/15/1998 2:27:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE ------------------------ While checking some of the major stocks I noticed that many stocks were either in a downtrend or they were triangulating. 1) DELL: Either it is already in a downtrend with the lower trendline below 95, or the TRIANGLE is forming with the apex at 103-104 2) LU: Either it is already in a downtrend with the lower trendline at 77 ,or a DESCENDING TRIANGLE is forming with the apex at 85. 3) GE: Either it is already in a downtrend with the lower trendline at 81, or a TRIANGLE is forming with the apex at 87 4) CCI: Downtrend with upper trendline at 152, and lower trendline at 132. 5) MU: Uptrend with lower trendline at 30 and upper trendline at 38, and a TRIANGLE forming within the trendlines with the apex at 32. 6) INTC: Uptrend with lower trendline @ 84 and upper trendline @ 94, and a TRIANGLE forming within the trendlines with the apex at 85. Seeya

To: j g cordes who wrote (49947)	8/15/1998 3:57:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Hi Jimmy I just now have a chance to respond to your mail<g>...Thought I say hi to you and everyone... I agree with what you said in this post...With low inflation, low commodity prices, low(and going lower) interest rates, a BEAR market seems unlikely... I feel a much larger "Correction" is coming this fall...I have pounded the tables over the last few months about the Asian Effect on every thing here in the USA & Worldwide for that matter..Jim it has really just now begun to hit home... I knew this summer would be "not good" for the semis & semi equips, and it seems my senario of another 6-12 months of severe doldrums will continue...There is NO Cap Spending coming from Asia...Oh yeah, there will be pockets & blips of business, but certainly not like the last 2 years... Hence I feel several potential problems exist with the Markets going forward... The good things are that NO Company can raise prices for goods and services, they would get creamed from the public...thats good for us...Wages will continue to climb higher as markets become much tighter this fall...The Fed however is a non event... With the Asian debacle, Russia & Europe(could be problems there), there is no way to raise rates.. In fact the reverse is more likely as the US economy slows measurably thru the next year or so... This is then the real problem with Corporate profits, and the potential of slowing consumer spending after the Xmas season...If we look out past 98, into 99 & 2000, we could see a downside risk in the markets if the consumer pulls in their horns... The single most important factor moving these markets is the publics, lack of selling!!! PERIOD...They will not bail out of positions like the Mutuals, Fundies etc...However they may NOT BUY anything either...Thats' a BIG problem...if the consumer decides to hold down their spending limits and just NOT buy, this market will fall hard IMO...They don't have to sell, they just won't BUY anything... With all things being equal, the Cinderella senario, has some potential cracks in the "slipper"...Slowing Corp. profits, slowing Consumer Spending, lay offs, and reduced earnings, could crimp the markets Big Time...of course we shall see right???<ggg>... I am currently all in cash...have been for 2 full months....i have been talking to some friends via e-mail, just to keep up with the threads..of course once or twice a week i'll browse thru my home turf to see what's up!!! I think we are currently very oversold, we should rebound 400-500 points and then selloff into the last Quarter, right on into Tax Loss Sales in Dec...I will probably be a BIG buyer then, if I don't see what I've preached here actually occur...There will be large portfolio dressing Oct-Dec, don't think it won't happen early, earlier than John Q. Public....These Fund guys are getting battered right now... Anyway Hope you're well, I hope all that reside here are in good health...I'll be in & out for the remainder of the summer into the fall...Stay well, My Warmest Regards, Jerry

To: j g cordes who wrote (49947)	8/15/1998 6:38:00 PM
From: Electric	Respond to of 58727

Jim, I agree with that post. I think that the less interference the better. But the FED hasnt kept out, they have not fooled around with the FED funds rate, for the most part. What they have done is mess around with our heads. It is obvious that normally the Funds rate is going to be a step below the 30 year, the 15 yr etc, and when it hasnt been lately that has indirectly told the market and all markets how the FED feels. So they arent forcing policy literally, but figuritively they actually have. Why else when we see Greenie on TV the market drops.. joke of course, but their force on the market is more so predicting what the FED is going to do or not do and why they do what they do in the face of obvious need to ease. I think the FED needs to ease just due to the inverted yeild curve if nothing else, and as I have mentioned to show that the big boyz understand that the world needs guidence, a leader. And right now the FED is being that really mean parent that is teaching lessons the hard way. But these lessons effect to alot more than one person. And to raise barracades isnt a smart move, I was suprised that Greenie made that comment, that was in poor judgment IMO.. I like less government, but the case when government is needed is in extreme cases, like a hurricane in Fla or heat in TX, see? We are having that right now, and the wrong step on Tues and we are going to see devaluation and firm markets are going to go under, which can change an economy. People in the US are spending because of the wealth effect given by our markets and spreading the wealth in spending gives revenues to firms, giving jobs to all. You know that equation, I forget it exactly, but it is true. As for what I think of over-spending by other nations.. ohhhhh yeeeaaahhhhh (OJ) Japan, Germany etc have had to keep up with our strength, and it is like the Simpsons episode about the power plant cartoon where they sweep the radioactivity under the rug... And it wont be fixed overnight. And if the market is sliding come next earnings, you just watch all the companies empty out their closets... It wont be pretty..