Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (1827)	8/15/1998 4:56:00 PM
From: drsvelte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Luc and thread: I agree with LT that next week should see the beginning of a relief rally, perhaps starting Tuesday after the Slickster's confessional. According to Donald Sew, the rally could retrace up 50-60% of the recent correction. Then, a reversal down perhaps beginning in September/October. The same sort of sentiment is evident on the BK board and the tech stock options board. However, this market seems to be sentiment-driven to the extreme leaving it very unpredictable (for me anyway), so I am still looking for short-term short as well as short-term long candidates. On one of my screens five stocks in the same industry group popped up. PMI, MTG, CMT, and OC were all off significantly and are in the fire, marine, and casualty insurance business. CI, which is a big life and accident insurer, was also down. Does anyone follow or have knowledge about what's going on in this industry? Was this a one day blip or is this sector heading down?? Any opinion would be appreciated.

To: Lucretius who wrote (1827)	8/15/1998 5:06:00 PM
From: wlheatmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

LT, Gee whiz, LT. DOW to 1000 in 3 years. Holy cow! You serious about your prediction? I believe there is tremendous volatility in the market with no stability in sight and that the DOW is way overvalued, but DOW to 1000? I do not know you, but I have been reading your posts. I think you have good insights into the market, but I wonder how you come to that conclusion. What is your background (that helps me with how you come to your conclusion), and what kind of information do you have to leads you to be so gloomy? Thanks. mike

To: Lucretius who wrote (1827)	8/15/1998 6:43:00 PM
From: virgil vancleave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

lt, i happen to agree with you. especially the airline industry which will be hurt badly by any increase in oil prices. and there is a limit to how low oil can and will go. they will NEVER give it away for free. if you have the patience to wait a quarter or maybe even less, the airlines may have a half price sale (stock price that is). i state a quote form a book and then explain my anology for doing so. "the more it changes, the more it stays the same." not sure which book i read it in, but it still applies today. it is my opinion that we are setting up to repeat what happened in 1987 on my birthday (oct 19). all the sign are already in place. only this time iit may be much worse. i am predicting dow <7000 by jan 99. i don't think we will ever see the 1000, but anything is possible. and as you stated, it is going to get ugly, really ugly. many mutual fund managers will be hurt, with many of them jumping out windows or whatever. just look at all the past bear markets and you will see what i mean. now to back up what i say. data for the past three weeks on advances verse declines puts decliners far ahead of advances by almost 2.5 to one. that includes the 2 up days we saw recently. the new highs to new lows data is even worse. new lows have been outnumbering new highs by nearly 10-1, every day for 2 weeks. while some may say that now is the time you can buy these stocks "cheap", i think time will show that the momentum will not stop abd you can buy them MUCH cheaper. or if you are brafve enough to buy puts or be short, the rewards will be quite large. just my 2 cents worth.