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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19340)	8/15/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Hello Ike I haven't talked to you in ages, hope you & the family is healthy & happy...I wanted to say Hi to all that reside here...Hope things are going good for all of you...I just posted some thoughts on TSO Thread, i'll cut & paste here for another point of view... The summer here in the East USA has nothing short of spectacular...No rain and wonderful sunny skies...I feel rested & refreshed since being out of the markets for 2 months...I lost too much $$$$$$, so I figured it was time to regroup for the fall "semester"... Anyway take care my friend....My best to you and your's.... j g cordes (49948 ) From: Options Jerry Saturday, Aug 15 1998 3:57PM ET Reply # of 49953 Hi Jimmy I just now have a chance to respond to your mail<g>...Thought I say hi to you and everyone... I agree with what you said in this post...With low inflation, low commodity prices, low(and going lower) interest rates, a BEAR market seems unlikely... I feel a much larger "Correction" is coming this fall...I have pounded the tables over the last few months about the Asian Effect on every thing here in the USA & Worldwide for that matter..Jim it has really just now begun to hit home... I knew this summer would be "not good" for the semis & semi equips, and it seems my senario of another 6-12 months of severe doldrums will continue...There is NO Cap Spending coming from Asia...Oh yeah, there will be pockets & blips of business, but certainly not like the last 2 years... Hence I feel several potential problems exist with the Markets going forward... The good things are that NO Company can raise prices for goods and services, they would get creamed from the public...thats good for us...Wages will continue to climb higher as markets become much tighter this fall...The Fed however is a non event... With the Asian debacle, Russia & Europe(could be problems there), there is no way to raise rates.. In fact the reverse is more likely as the US economy slows measurably thru the next year or so... This is then the real problem with Corporate profits, and the potential of slowing consumer spending after the Xmas season...If we look out past 98, into 99 & 2000, we could see a downside risk in the markets if the consumer pulls in their horns... The single most important factor moving these markets is the publics, lack of selling!!! PERIOD...They will not bail out of positions like the Mutuals, Fundies etc...However they may NOT BUY anything either...Thats' a BIG problem...if the consumer decides to hold down their spending limits and just NOT buy, this market will fall hard IMO...They don't have to sell, they just won't BUY anything... With all things being equal, the Cinderella senario, has some potential cracks in the "slipper"...Slowing Corp. profits, slowing Consumer Spending, lay offs, and reduced earnings, could crimp the markets Big Time...of course we shall see right???<ggg>... I am currently all in cash...have been for 2 full months....i have been talking to some friends via e-mail, just to keep up with the threads..of course once or twice a week i'll browse thru my home turf to see what's up!!! I think we are currently very oversold, we should rebound 400-500 points and then selloff into the last Quarter, right on into Tax Loss Sales in Dec...I will probably be a BIG buyer then, if I don't see what I've preached here actually occur...There will be large portfolio dressing Oct-Dec, don't think it won't happen early, earlier than John Q. Public....These Fund guys are getting battered right now... Anyway Hope you're well, I hope all that reside here are in good health...I'll be in & out for the remainder of the summer into the fall...Stay well, My Warmest Regards, Jerry ------

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19340)	8/15/1998 6:08:00 PM
From: SLAKE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Iqbal Vist the Buddist in London sometime and SIT Zazen. I made an appointment with the Roshi in the 70's at the BBS across the street from the PLUSH American Embassy . To my amazement she smoked camels. I don't make verbal generalizations anymore. Even Don Juan in Castenada's books is a broker. It is pacifism that ian't in the American TNC and defence contractors dictionary and they control too many dictionary not too mention jobs. Its the safety net of the free market that should be removed like Fidelity getting bailed out 20 billion for a bunch of flunkies and three wall street banks. The losers are not losers when failure is sucess. The Mexican debt is now three time worse. The poor Turks and Greeks and Kurds should not be removed from the German welfare system.Frankfurt is hell enough to the poor with their color skin. Boyle

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19340)	8/16/1998 3:27:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Economic Forecast and Survey on the State of the Economy 1998 Economic Forecast Our panel of 18 Wall Street economists expects real gross domestic product (GDP) to average 3.4% in 1998, the same as in last month's survey. On June 25, the government reported the final estimate of first quarter real GDP which showed that the economy was growing at an annualized rate of 5.4%, up from the preliminary estimate of 4.8%. The consensus view is that the economy will downshift to a growth rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, 2.5% in the third quarter, and 2.7% in the fourth quarter. Individual estimates of quarterly growth in 1998 vary, however, with disagreement over the magnitude of the negative impact of the Asian currency crisis on exports, as well the degree to which the inventory build-up in the two prior quarters will serve as a drag on growth. The panel, however, is more optimistic about the outlook for nonresidential fixed investment, which includes capital spending, than they were last month. At the same time, our panel is less optimistic about the year-over-year increase in industrial production than in last month's survey, due in large part to the economic crisis in Asia, and the General Motors strike. In addition, the panel is less optimistic about corporate profits in 1998 than they were last month, in light of the Asian financial crisis and the potential margin squeeze from tight labor markets in some sectors. The trade deficit in 1998 is expected to exceed $233 billion, which is greater than last month's estimate of over $223 billion. There continues to be optimism about the outlook for the housing sector in 1998, given the forecast for strong employment growth, real disposable personal income gains, and consumer confidence, as well as the decline in mortgage interest rates. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is expected to average 1.6%, the same as last month, but down sharply from an estimate of 2.2% in the January 1998 survey. Our panel of economists remains divided over what the next move by the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be when it occurs. Three month T-bills are expected to average 5.1%, the same as last month. The 30-year bond is expected to average 5.8%, down 10 basis points from last month, with corporate AAA bonds averaging 6.6%, up 10 basis points from last month. 1999 Economic Forecast The panel is forecasting real growth of 2.5%, 2.4%, 2.2%, and 2.4%, for the first quarter through the fourth quarter of 1999, respectively. The consensus outlooks for nonresidential fixed investment and for industrial production in 1999 are more optimistic than last month. CPI inflation is expected to average 2.4% for the year. The unemployment rate is expected to average 4.6% in 1999, down from an estimate of 4.7% in last month's survey, but up only slightly from the 4.5% rate predicted for all of 1998. Once again, the trade deficit is expected to remain a problem, with the consensus estimate for 1999 now more than $261 billion. 1998 Consensus Estimates Survey Date Economic Indicators Jul. '98 Jun. '98 May '98 Apr. '98 Mar. '98 Real GDP* (%) 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 CPI (%) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 Industrial Production (%) 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.2 4.4 Disposable Income (%) 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.7 Corporate Profits (%) 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.9 4.1 Unemployment (%) 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 Housing Starts (Mil. units) 1.53 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.47 Net Exports ($Bil.) -233.4 -223.1 -207.9 -196.9 -171.9 1999 Consensus Estimates Survey Date Economic Indicators Jul. '98 Jun. '98 May '98 Apr. '98 Mar. '98 Real GDP* (%) 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 CPI (%) 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 Industrial Production (%) 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 3.0 Disposable Income (%) 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 3.3 Corporate Profits (%) 2.1 3.0 2.9 1.8 1.6 Unemployment (%) 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 Housing Starts (Mil. units) 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.42 1.40 Net Exports ($Bil.) -261.9 -251.6 -236.3 -222.2 -187.8 *using chain-weighted method -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Economic Scenarios For the month of July, we asked a panel of Wall Street economists the following question: What is the probability, one year out, that our economy will be in the states designated below? The following chart shows the average (in percent) of their current and historical responses: bankamerica.com Scenario Comment Looking at the economic backdrop a year from now, the panel believes the chances for growth are still the most likely at 34%, up one percent from last month's survey. Chances for a slowdown are now 27%, down 5 percentage points from last month's survey. Chances of a boom rose 2% to 21%. The chances of stagflation, or of a stagnating economy accompanied by rising inflation, rose 2% to 18% this month.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19340)	8/16/1998 6:08:00 AM
From: Brian Fukuba	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike---very off topic---Zen?? Just home after a nice afternoon with a new friend...and assorted chores and movie. I'm more of a student<<gg>> with "Zen" than I am with the markets. The group I sit with is a curious group of people, but probably just a typical slice of silicone valley: scientists, engineers, teachers, students, etc. Emphasis is not enlightenment, but the ordinary: non-ego, non-dualistic, meditation practice: paying attention. And how to fold this practice in our every day hetic lives. The abbot at the center worked at IBM for 30 years and during this time studied under Shunryu Suzuki. FWIW, here's the link: zendo.com What it's told me about the market <<ggg>> is that on Monday morning, at 10 o'clock, the bell will ring, and the markets will open. Loosely quoted, the Buddha permeates the SPX pits of Chicago just as much as the petals of the lotus flower. But it's very late again in CA, and I just noticed the half-dozen plus posts you've been busy with I need to review. Thanks, Ike. bri