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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis who wrote (58435)	8/15/1998 4:43:00 PM
From: Geoff Nunn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Dennis, Where will Dell be in 5 years? U.S. stocks historically have appreciated at about 10-11% per year. This, of course, is an average with many peaks and valleys in between. If the market continues to perform at this rate, Dell should do better than 10-11% given its above average risk. Dell's higher risk is reflected in its beta and its price volatility. One reason Dell is risky is that it produces in a capital goods industry. Such industries normally fare poorly during recessions. Dell is also risky because of the high uncertainly of its continuing cost advantage over competitors. If rivals find a way to emulate Dell's business model, Dell shareholders are in for big time losses and its Katy bar the door. Such an event doesn't seem likely anytime soon, but the odds it will happen are anyone's guess. My feeling, for what it is worth, is that the market is pricing Dell to yield an expected return of 16% per year. If Dell appreciates at that rate, the price will rise by 110% over the next 5 years, which would put the price at $221.81. Geoff

To: Dennis who wrote (58435)	8/15/1998 5:31:00 PM
From: Frank Ellis Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

To Dennis, Stock bull and All, I share similar concerns that both stock bull and Dennis have? Although it is important for Dell to satisfy the expected quarterly earnings both whisper number and analyst expectation, we have to shoulder a major problem with the market forces.We have a serious problem folks and I am not going to sugar coat this anymore. Maybe Greenspan tilted the dumpster over the mountain but we have to agree that the internals of the markets have been breaking down for quite some time. If he had not started this downturn maybe someone else would have?? Of the 3000 mutual funds in existence more than 1090 of them are now in the red. The multinationals are feared that their corporate profits will not be able able to justify the high PE's. I do suspect that over the next few months we could witness a painful retreat of the Dow bringing the market down another 10% or more. Now let me share with you the benefit of all my years in the market of which is almost 30. We will weather through this somehow, someway. The crumbling and uncertainty of Asia, Russia and Timbucktoo will eventually look better. Historically there has never been a time over the long term when after a bear market which we are in now that the Dow has not trurned around and went up for a period of a few years. I have learned that timing the market does not work. I have never know anyone who has made a prolonged period of gains playing with options or taking risk. We should not be thinking of selling are moving to the side lines but truly think of pull backs as buying opportunities and if you do not have any more money, then just sit tight. There is no other game around that rewards the patient investor like the stock market does. The enviroment right now sucks. From time to time there will always be something that has traders and the MM's worried This weekend's edition of the Sunday Philadelphia Inquirer has in the financial pages a bold print saying Stock Prices Plunge. It is written in the biggest bold print stock the paper has. Folks when the media tells you the sky is falling and Dan Rather is trying to rattle you, it is time to stay cool and not panic. The newspapers waste too much time and space printing stock prices everyday. Our only concern is the price of our stocks when and only when we want to sell. Five and ten years from now I believe that the best managed companies and the leaders in their fields will be those that best reward its shareholders. We do need the market pull back. I predict that we will see the greatest bull market in history starting withing the next couple of years. Be patient, firm and long invested. There will be a tremendous growth potential in Technology and health care. Now if you really want to be concerned about something significant, I want to know how the hell that stain got on Monica's cocktail dress?? Bill Clinton said that he never told her to lie, I wonder if he told her to squat??(ggg) It will probably get a lot worse before it gets better but the market when it truly comes back will do so with a vegeance that you had better be invested or you will have missed the turn around. PS I don't have time to check the spelling errors Time for dinner Best Wishes to all and Stay calm We will make it through this together Sincerely Frank

To: Dennis who wrote (58435)	8/16/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Dennis, I am long in the market. I tend to stay close to 100% invested, and I have done that throughout my adult life. I am also an investor (as opposed to a trader), which means that I put my money into companies whose prospects I consider bright over the long term. Given that kind of mindset, I expect Dell will be worth considerably more than it does now. How much is hard to tell, but I expect that Dell will continue to grow faster than its peers over the next five years, and I also expect the computer industry to grow rapidly over the next five years. The following is a conservative exercise in forecasting Dell's price. I caution you that this approach is highly conjectural. So lets assume that we are looking at around $2.10 in earnings for this fiscal year, and that earnings will grow at 35% per annum for the next five years, after which earnings will grow at 15%. That means that in six years earnings will be roughly $9.42. Now the question is what P/E will 15% command. The S&P has forecasted earnings growth of around 7% and commands a P/E of around 25. So let's assume a p/e of 30 for Dell, which would price the stock at around $283. Based on the current price of $105 that yields an average appreciation of around 17.8% which is considerably better than the historic 10% average yield on equities, and is consistent with a growth company. Dennis, bear in mind that this is highly conjectural. There are any number of things that could derail these estimates. But I also believe that the assumptions are quite conservative. TTFN, CTC

To: Dennis who wrote (58435)	8/16/1998 2:07:00 PM
From: Craig Lieberman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Dennis, Look to Michael Dell for your answer. Didn't he say that DELL will be a $60 Billion company in 2001. It is now a $13 Billion company. So even with a shorter time horizon than now, consider 60/13 to be your ratio for the stock price or about 4.6. Assume that the stock is trading at 30% growth per year so a PE of 30 is what it deserves going forward. current earnings of around $2 this year x 4.6 gives earnings of $9.20 x 30 = $276 share price some time in 2001. Hows that for 3 years of investing. BTW if they do continue to grow at 30% for the two years after that, the earnings would be around $15.50/share in 5 years. which would conservatively (lets say 25% growth from there deserves a PE of 25). would lead to a share price of 25 x $15.50 = $388/share. Hope it helps explain why I am long in DELL since 1996 and will continue to remain long for some time. Craig