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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor-ex! who wrote (24403)	8/15/1998 11:43:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

I-EX: going back to 1994 as a common point, the reits and russell appear to be 45% off the S&P - so although the bear in these markets is approaching 25% off their highs, they've lagged the index for so long that the REAL gap is much greater. As far as I can tell, they lagged significantly in 94. It's the difference betwen 6Xbook for the Dow vs book value for the Russell. If the Russell goes any lower we can forget about having electricity and running water in our houses in the near future.

To: Investor-ex! who wrote (24403)	8/16/1998 6:18:00 AM
From: Philipp	Respond to of 94695

Investor-ex! Actually, we DID have the counter-rally from the initial sell-of from highs in the Russell and Wilshire indices. The large cap indices tried to do the same thing from April's highs, but shot off into lala-land instead. Good point, in particular considering how few stocks actually pushed the indices up. I am still not convinced that we will see a Kahuna (even a small one) on Monday/Tuesday. I also have my doubts that, if we really get to the 1012 SPX level (David Plonk) which implies serious panic selling, that it can stop there. If we get a significant sell-off (after an early-morning rally) to rinse out all the negativity that is present in the charts, technical indicators, I would expect a quick reversal (barring any disastrous news from Asia; Russia is not really relevant, just a pretext). I am not going to play this one on the downside, but perhaps on the reversal. Good trading to all, Phil P.S.: I am also feeling a bit of impatience on the thread (" Waiting for the BK"); people want it to happen soon, but that is not necessarily self-fulfilling.