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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (25)	8/16/1998 1:37:00 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, this thread is great, I don't have to grit my teeth at certain posts and say I have no desire to get involved in this, I'll let people like Justa do it. Maybe Don will come by soon, he won't need to do as much post weekend slashing and burning as on that other place Marc

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (25)	8/16/1998 7:21:00 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa & DD: RE: <Lower interest rates mean a lower stock market>: Interesting discussion. Imho, gradually declining interest rates could gradually stimulate the U.S. economy resulting in 1999 profit growth. Lower interest rates usually mean HIGHER, not lower P/E's. If the Long bond is breaking records on the downside each day, why shouldn't the P/E multiple be breaking records on the upside each day ? While S&P Outlook estimates of 1999 earnings appear to be WAY over Brinker's latest estimates for 1999, it would take extraordinary exoginous events for such S&P estimates to be reduced below zero growth. Message 5498545 From my viewpoint, the big questions are: - How much effect will falling interest rates have on the P/E multiples ? Will such effect offset the effect of slower growth in the economy and slowing growth in corporate profits ? - If economic growth picks up as a result of lower interest rates, will our educational institutions produce enough QUALIFIED workers to fill resulting demands for new workers ? - If not, will regulations for immigration be relaxed to take up the slack? - If not, will the resulting increases in the price of labor be offset by price declines in other areas of the economy ? - If not, will wage inflation accelerate causing government action that destabilizes the current sustainable growth trend of the US economy ? BTW, Congratulations on the new thread. So far, it looks like it's off to a VERY POSITIVE start. Let's hope it stays that way and the polluters that spread unpleasantness at that other place do not find their way over here. P