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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (7747)	8/16/1998 3:04:00 AM
From: Phil Jacobson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

TALK? Humm, now at 11 and change. Only 11 more points left for them to drop <g>. Saw they're giving up on being acquired and are now trying to get people to think they're going to buy back their own stock. Yeah right. What's next, a garage sale? SAVLY - I still like it, hope you do better than I have. At least you'll have a reasonable cost basis. Phil

To: Sergio H who wrote (7747)	8/16/1998 10:17:00 AM
From: Phil Jacobson	Respond to of 29382

Sergio, re: SAVLY, it is an attractive stock right now, but be careful because it's not apparent that the slide is over yet. SAVLY does have a couple of competitors, one of which is pretty tough (LHSG) which has also been sliding, but not as much, after an enormous run that I thought SAVLY was going to emulate. A third company (BILL) has crashed even harder than SAVLY but I don't think they're as strong fundamentally. The sector is a good one but is going through some uncertainty right now - for example, consolidation in the phone biz has raised questions about whether these companies will be able to keep long term contracts. In some cases, deals previously locked or being considered by the smaller acquirees can be delayed or eliminated by the new parent companies. Sometime the parent has its own deal in place, other times the parent is big enough (and dumb enough) to think their internal IT staff can handle the requirements of convergent billing. A quick additional note on this last point...in almost every case such billing work is done more effectively by outsourcing to companies that have core platforms built that just need some customization. But the big guys get all full of themselves and usually try to kludge a convergent system out of one of their core products so as to obey the "we want a single platform for all our systems" mantra. In addition to the fact that such mantras are downright silly and mandated for the primary purpose of total control by the VP of MIS, the efforts are usually severely underfunded and the result is a system that is immediately and fundamentally handicapped. Phil