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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (7751)	8/16/1998 1:27:00 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Am thinking CD is worth considering now that all the bad news is out and they had a positive surprise with earnings--but it has already moved from 13+ to 17+--the WSJ feature on the Cendant story is quite a read--wild---as Silverman said "we had a good company(HFS) before we merged with CUC" and Silverman who lost on paper 800 million dollars saying "it's not life and death,it's only money".Max

To: Sergio H who wrote (7751)	8/16/1998 3:23:00 AM
From: Amigo Mike	Respond to of 29382

Hi Amigo, APCO Short term ...... APCO is in a downtrend (obviously ;-) duh). APCO has a very well defined down channel. Shortterm stochastics indicate APCO is oversold. Based on the analysis of the stochastics and it corresponding channel moves ..... there is some indication APCO may break the channel and move higher in about a week. The long stochastic (d%) is turning positive for the first time in 5 weeks. RSI turning positive. Momentum is lagging as volume has been decreasing over the last two weeks. Intermediate ....... still solidly down. Indicators are severely damaged and point sharply lower. To me, this indicates a period of stablization (flat movement) for a week or two to make some repairs. APCO bounced sharply off the 7.50 area twice the last two weeks. I have anything near 7.50 - 8.00 pegged as supreme buying op. I have been buying the Jan 7.50 calls. IFCI Shortterm ..... flat. Tough call on this one. The stock actually still has a valid uptrend channel. The indicator are forming a triangle that has a slight downward bias. However, the chart is about to reach the apex ..... my feeling is the stock will break to the upside. Intermediate ..... looks like solid uptrend in place. IFCI should lead in an advance in the small caps. Must break to new high for confirmation. Russell 2000 Had to go out to a 5 year chart on the Russell 2000 to see what is happening. We are in a key area right now. Further deterioration at this point ... and the small caps will continue in a prolonged bear market. The index is ~right at key support line goin back 5 years. By definition ... the support should be very strong since the support line is so long. Your assumption of a rebound in the small caps may be correct. Amigo Mike

To: Sergio H who wrote (7751)	8/16/1998 10:27:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Sergio, There's a couple technical signs that the R2K is reaching/has reached at least a short term bottom and a small bounce can be expected. It's still too early to tell if a bounce would hold and be used as a base for continuation up or if a more serious bottom is waiting. There's definitely a need for some shoring up of the technicals which is likely to take several weeks. The 388 (current) to 392 (in several weeks) area is the nearest significant uptrending support. If the R2K gets that low and the technical profile can stave off any weakening as it gets there, I'd call that the bottom. On the bright side, the lower 21 day BB was pierced as the 21 dRSI reached a very oversold reading so that could mean it's ready to get as high as 450 from here. That would lift a lot of small caps significantly. APCO is in much the same shape as the R2K (no surprise there, huh?). It is showing a few indications that a bounce is probable but there's still room to go lower. If the R2K stumbles again and drops to 388-392, APCO could go to 6 1/2-6 7/8. It's interesting that I get a first date of significance for the S&P 500 coming up during the 2nd week of Sept. and a trend line intersection on APCO within a week afterward. It's going to be a long month ahead. Once the market decides to get back on the right foot, APCO has a shot at working its way back over 12. IFCI has a technical profile that seems to be ignoring all the carnage around it. Since it's in the middle of a short term rally now, any position taken should be done with half an expectation that there will be a chance to add to it at a lower price (as low as 7 1/2) but over the intermediate term, higher prices should be seen (as reasonably high as 12 1/4 with unreasonably high reaching to 14 1/2). What's your FA take on FRNT and CGPI? Doug R