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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: zax who wrote (13669)8/16/1998 6:03:00 AM
From: llamaphlegm  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
zax:

a tour de force.

William:

I'd also be careful of picking fights with the artistically inclined.
BTW, if amzn for the next 10 quarters keeps guiding as analysts' estimates down (ie increases the loss estimates) and then beats the loss estimates (by losing slightly less than projected), would this make you happy? If so, I imagine that you did sommersaults when amzn's loss estimates, last quarter WERE DOUBLED from ~.20 to ~.40 and then amzn beat them. I guess that you see this as better than amzn sticking with it's original loss estimate of .20 and missing it slightly by losing oh say .22. Where i come from it's better to lose less money than more, but hey what do i know, i'm not long amzn.

Any time you're ready, I'd love to see the msft -amzn 10 q and k comparisons so we can all determine just how boilerplate amzn's language is.

LP



To: zax who wrote (13669)8/16/1998 6:06:00 AM
From: llamaphlegm  Respond to of 164684
 
zax:

if i told ou once i told a 1000 times, if you're gonna waste time over at tmf, you gotta remember to post the links here too!

LP

Source:

smartmoney.com

Morgan Stanley's Mary Meeker, probably the sector's most influential analyst right now.
Meeker generally values a company based on revenue minus expenses projected out to the
year 2001. With those numbers, she runs a series of complex calculations that determine at
what level a stock should be trading. Based on that analysis, Meeker has been bullish on
Amazon.com of late, but now says, "I felt a lot more comfortable talking about Amazon a
few months ago" -- when it was 30 points lower.



To: zax who wrote (13669)8/16/1998 6:14:00 AM
From: llamaphlegm  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
zax:

actually the rest of that article is even more damning, see previous post for the link

1. meeker's comments were made when the stock was at $99/share. you do the math bulls, she's more comfy at $30 cheaper (aka $65-70 range).
2. uber bull benjamin's $44 price target has some assumptions built in -- read them and then if you can justify them, ok that's $44 share (and we can spend all day laughing about the nirvana like conditions required for his scenario to play out -- assuming that earnings should trade ata 50 PE!!!). btw, bulls if you want to make a bullish case, rather than just spout off about how great the company, please please do what benjamin does and clearly state your assumptions -- it helps all of us have a reasoned debate.
3. Did you notice that not a single analyst/fund manager sited recommended buying amzn. Hmmm, maybe they know something.
short term, i'm as ignorant as the next person, longer term ... don't look pretty.

LP

Let's take Amazon.com (AMZN), that pioneer of e-commerce. It has
recently experienced a 236% runup in its stock. How would traditional
research -- like examining its price/earnings ratio -- value this company? Well,
Amazon.com trades at around $99, a lofty price for a company expected to
lose $1.15 a share in its 1998 fiscal year and 61 cents in 1999. But P/E is an
unfairly rigid measure of such a young company's potential, you say, so let's try
price-to-sales (Amazon.com's is a stratospheric 24.5, compared with other
booksellers' ratios of 1) or price-to-book value (182) or even price-to-cash
(the company doesn't have any cash, but it does carry a debt/capital ratio of
79.5).

Okay. Let's cast aside these traditional -- some might say moribund --
measures and try to value these Internet stocks the way the experts do. Take,
for instance, Morgan Stanley's Mary Meeker, probably the sector's most
influential analyst right now. Meeker generally values a company based on
revenue minus expenses projected out to the year 2001. With those numbers,
she runs a series of complex calculations that determine at what level a stock
should be trading. Based on that analysis, Meeker has been bullish on
Amazon.com of late, but now says, "I felt a lot more comfortable talking about
Amazon a few months ago" -- when it was 30 points lower.

Then there is Keith Benjamin, who puts a different methodology to work at
the San Francisco brokerage firm BancAmerica Robertson Stephens. He
looks principally at how many people are turning to the given business and
how that feeds into earnings. With Amazon.com he estimates that more than 8
million people will be using the site by the year 2001, contributing to revenue
of $120 per user and net income of over $7 per user. Taking these figures, he
then projects an earnings number for the year 2001, discounting expected
expenses. Assuming that earnings should trade at a multiple of 50, he then
comes up with a current price target based on those numbers. Given all this,
he figures, Amazon.com should be trading at 44 -- 52% lower than its current
price. And then, of course, there is the very real possibility that this bookselling
phenomenon is just a sitting duck, with Barnes & Noble (BKS) -- a
company with 1,011 stores, $2.8 billion in revenue and 27 years of success
under Chairman Leonard Riggio -- vowing to blow Amazon.com off the Net
one day soon.

With risks like these on the Internet, is it any wonder that Warren Buffett just
bought an insurance company?

Making Rational Choices
Buffett may be steering clear of the Internet right now, but plenty of mutual
fund managers have been diving right in. Legg Mason's William Miller is
buying America Online (AOL) -- a stock recently trading at 106 times 1999
earnings. So is Mike DiCarlo at John Hancock Special Equities (JHNSX),
Warren Lammert at Janus Mercury (JAMRX) and Jim McCall at PBHG
Large Cap Growth (PBHLX). Meanwhile, Gus Sauter, the index-fund
maven at Vanguard, is buying Yahoo!

But these fund managers all have good reason to buy these kinds of stocks, no
matter how overvalued they may seem to the rest of us. For managers in an
increasingly competitive fund world, it's almost worse to miss out on buying
the "next great stock" than to have gambled and lost. Their shareholders are
typically willing to let them take these kinds of risks because the ultimate
payout could be so great.

And we agree. But what works for a fund manager may not work for you.
Yes, there is money to be made on the Internet by individual investors. Yes,
many of these stocks look tempting. But if you are going to gamble on this
sector, we think the best course to follow is one that lets you work the odds in
your favor.

How to do that? Well, we believe there are three strategies worth pursuing in
the Internet sector:

1.Buy a front-runner that still looks good on a valuation basis.
2.Buy a beaten-down company with upside potential.
3.Buy an undiscovered stock.

Can you find such stocks right now? We took a close look at more than four
dozen Internet companies in four broad areas -- software, infrastructure, the
media and e-commerce -- and came up with four picks that look promising to
us, including one that somewhat stretches the definition of an Internet stock
and yet seems uniquely poised to benefit from the continuing growth of
cyberspace.

-- By Tiernan Ray and Nellie S. Huang and David B. Lipschultz



To: zax who wrote (13669)8/16/1998 9:07:00 AM
From: llamaphlegm  Respond to of 164684
 
nytimes.com

hmmm -- at the same time points out that the privacy issue/e commerce security may act as a natureal brake to the growth of e commerce, and yet, how many other companies are using the same or better "super duper sophisticated" trcking software to better serve consumers

August 16, 1998

Big Web Sites to Track Steps of Their Users

By SAUL HANSELL

ome of the largest commercial sites on the World Wide Web have agreed to feed information about their customers' reading,
shopping and entertainment habits into a system developed by a Massachusetts company that is already tracking the moves of
more than 30 million Internet users, recording where they go and what they read, often without the users' knowledge.

The agreement calls for the participating Web sites to track their users so that advertisements can be
precisely aimed at the most likely prospects for goods and services.

But while this system guarantees the anonymity of individual users, the underlying technology disturbs
privacy-rights advocates, who have long worried about the growing ability of online companies to collect and
store personal data about people who use the Web.

Many individual Internet services have begun to amass detailed records of who uses their sites and how they use them. But this new
industry cooperative represents the most ambitious effort yet to gather disparate bits of personal information into a central database
containing digital dossiers on potentially every person who surfs the Web.

Participating sites will include the Lycos-Tripod site, which was visited by 14.8 million people in
July, according to Relevant Knowledge, a market research firm, and the Geocities virtual
community of more than 2 million personal Web sites that attracted 14.2 million visitors last month.

The system's proponents extol its promise for delivering precisely directed, sometimes
personalized, ads. For example, an Internet user who looks up tourist information about England
on a travel site in the network might be fed ads for airlines flying into Heathrow Airport and for
hotels in London as he checks sports scores.

"If someone comes to your bookstore the first time, you can find out if they are interested in mountain climbing, organic gardening and
tennis; you can present them books related to their interests immediately," said David Wetherell, the chief executive of the company
behind the Internet system, CMG Information Services of Andover, Mass.

In addition to a few large sites, CMG has attracted a host of smaller participants like NBC Videoseeker and Ticketmaster.

CMG's system and a dozen other similar efforts under development are rooted in the same marketing needs that have prompted
direct-mail companies to assemble mailing lists using nearly every publicly available scrap of information on people, from their auto
registrations to their vacation habits.

But while mailing-list companies are limited to identifying people for mailing lists by broad interests -- for example, subscribers to
fishing magazines -- Internet-based systems can find a person who reads articles about fishing even if the Web page he is visiting is
part of a general news or recreation site.

The Internet systems can also tighten their focus by, say, sending an ad from a charter operator to someone who has spent time
reading about deep-sea fishing.

Wetherell argues that CMG's system, known as Engage, protects people's privacy in ways that mailing-list companies never can. In
particular, he says, Engage does not record the name, street or e-mail address or credit-card numbers of the people it profiles.

Instead, it places a unique identifying number on the computer hard drive of every person who visits one of the participating sites. That
way the system can keep track of all the sites visited by that computer, regardless of the identity of its user.

"We took the highest road you could possibly take with respect to privacy," Wetherell said. "We
think you can learn a lot more about someone from their behavior than from their name and
address."

Moreover, a user can choose not to have his or her surfing observed, by visiting the company's
Web site and selecting an option that will remove the identification number, known in the language of
the Internet as a "cookie," from their computer. Users can also set their Web browsers not to put
any cookies on their computers, but this can complicate access to some sites.

Some privacy advocates agree that Engage's promise of anonymity could help protect Internet users
from hackers and commercial or government snoops.

"The big long-term concern about privacy is the surreptitious compilation of every site you click,
every page you download, every product you order into a single database," said Marc Rotenberg,
the director of the Electronic Privacy Information Center in Washington. "Anonymity is like solar
energy. It's a way to produce what you want without the unpleasant byproducts."

Yet Rotenberg and others also say they are concerned about whether Engage and all the
participating sites will strictly maintain this promise of anonymity.

"Engage has done many good things to protect privacy, but my worry is they are firing the starting
gun in the race for the bottom," said Jason Catlett, the president of Junkbusters Corp., a Green
Brook, N.J., privacy consulting firm. "The worst actors will be left to use the most sophisticated
surveillance techniques as they please."

Indeed, last Thursday, in the federal government's first enforcement action to safeguard privacy on
the Internet, the Federal Trade Commission accused Geocities of selling personal information about
its members. Geocities said it did nothing wrong, but changed its notification to members about how
data about them would be used.

It is not illegal for Internet services to sell personal information about their
customers, and there are few laws protecting consumers' privacy in
cyberspace. The Clinton administration's policy is that businesses engaged
in electronic commerce should police themselves.

Yet there have been several recent instances in which companies have
either lied outright to their customers or otherwise failed to live up to their own rules.

For example, America Online Inc., in theory, offers users the chance to shield their actual identities behind
pseudonyms known as screen names. But the U.S. Navy recently forced the retirement of an 18-year
veteran, Master Chief Petty Officer Timothy R. McVeigh, after a customer-service representative for
America Online violated the company's policy and identified McVeigh to a Navy investigator as the owner of
a screen name with marital status listed as "gay."

In order to avoid such problems, CMG executives said they would not track some online behavior that could be especially sensitive.

"We decided to avoid sexual preferences, adult content and medical information, because they are controversial," said Daniel Jaye,
the chief technical officer for Engage.

Engage is the most elaborate system so far for monitoring where people go and what they do on the Internet. But dozens of other
systems have been created to learn things about users in an attempt to improve responses to advertising.

Internet technology can supply site owners with some information about visitors to their sites -- the area code of a dial-up visitor, for
example, the type of computer used, and, in the case of an office computer, the name of the company.

But these data are unreliable. For example, a computer with the same address might be used by two or more people.

For that reason, Web sites are increasingly seeking more detailed information. They do this by registering people for contests or
services like free e-mail.

At each step of the way, the information collected is saved in databases that can be used to aim ads.

In one recent example, a quarter-million people filled out a survey at Walt Disney Co.'s ESPN site in return for a chance to win tickets
to the NCAA Final Four tournament.

Other sites, including The New York Times on the Web, require users to provide their names, zip codes, age and ranges of income.
All information except the customer's name is then used to compile profiles to help advertisers direct messages.

In general, advertisers say that such targeting techniques can increase as much as fivefold the percentage of viewers who click on a
given ad. The Web sites, accordingly, charge a premium for delivering ads aimed at certain users.

But another frontier for Internet marketers -- one that alarms privacy advocates -- is the combining of information gathered from
people online with vast stores of data on these same people kept by companies that compile traditional mailing lists.

Adforce Inc., a company in Cupertino, Calif., is developing a system in cooperation with Metromail, one of the largest mailing-list
companies, to do just that.

Adforce executives are seeking to persuade Internet service providers to give them the name and address of each visitor as he or she
surfs. Adforce would then instantly retrieve demographic and buying-habit data kept by Metromail about that person and use it to
display advertisements aimed at him or her.

Like Engage, Adforce says it will not provide the names and addresses of the users to the advertiser. Charles Berger, the chief
executive of Adforce, argues that this approach is less intrusive than the Engage system because it uses only information gathered off
line in its advertising system.

"I feel my privacy is more violated if someone follows me around and watches what I read than if they look up that I have a Volvo in
my garage," he said.

While Adforce does store some of the information it collects, Berger said neither Adforce nor Metromail planned to use the data
about which sites users view.

So far, however, Internet service providers apparently have been reluctant to sell information about their customers to Adforce. As an
alternative, the company is now asking individual sites to share the postal addresses provided by users who register for various
services. Once a user's name and address have been captured by one site in the Adforce network, all Metromail data about that
person would be used to select advertising on other sites in the system.

Berger declined to say which sites had agreed to provide such registration data.

Among the companies that have chosen to take a cautious approach is America Online, which has amassed the biggest repository of
data about its customers. After being sued by McVeigh, America Online introduced a new, tougher privacy policy. Among other
things, the company said it would not use data about customers' online habits to aim advertisements.

"AOL has gone from having one of the worst records in the industry to having one of the best privacy policies," said Catlett of
Junkbusters.

America Online, however, has revenue from a regular monthly fee charged to each user, while most other Internet services depend
entirely on advertising.

"If the ads aren't effective, these services are not going to be around," Wetherell of CMG said.

What is more, amid the ever greater cacophony on the Internet, companies are increasingly desperate to find ways to reach the few
people who are likely to be receptive to their products.

"Advertisers and publishers want a better eyeball, and a better eyeball is a more targeted eyeball," said Richard Baumer, the president
of Venture Direct Worldwide. His New York-based company sells ads on behalf of about 100 Internet sites, ranging from Golf.com
to Universal Studios. Venture Direct has agreed to participate in the Engage system.

Baumer argues that customers will be better off when they see ads that are most relevant to their needs.

"Marketers with information that use it wisely produce a better relationship between consumer and supplier," he asserted. "As in any
medium, crossing the line and abusing the information is objectionable. This technology is potentially more useful and potentially more
harmful than we've ever seen before."



To: zax who wrote (13669)8/16/1998 9:08:00 AM
From: llamaphlegm  Respond to of 164684
 
nytimes.com

No comment needed.

August 16, 1998

MARKET WATCH

A Time to Value Words of Wisdom

Related Articles
The Overview: A Break in the Clouds, or More Storms Ahead?
The New York Times: Your Money

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON

EW YORK -- Call it a sign of the times.

Late last week a publicist called, peddling a new book meant to replace "Security Analysis" by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd,
the 1934 bible for value investors. "Badly outmoded and out of date," the pitch went.

In fact, the tome is more timely than ever.

Now that corporate earnings and the upward momentum of stock prices are slowing, Graham and Dodd make perfect summer
reading for investors looking to get their bearings. Indeed, the authors' description of market strategies prevailing in the pre-Crash
1920s -- the so-called New-Era Theory of investing -- is eerie:

(italics)The notion that the desirability of a common stock was entirely independent of its price seems incredibly absurd. Yet the
new-era theory led directly to this thesis. If a public utility stock was selling at 35 times its maximum recorded earnings, instead of 10
times its average earnings, which was the pre-boom standard, the conclusion to be drawn was not that the stock was now too high
but merely that the standard of value had been raised.

Instead of judging the market price by established standards of value, the new era based its standards of value upon the market price.
Hence, all upper limits disappeared, not only upon the price at which a stock could sell, but even upon the price at which it would
deserve to sell.(end italics)

Fast-forward 60 years or so and try to imagine what Graham and Dodd would think of Ameritrade, the discount brokerage, selling
for 1,304 times earnings; Intuit, the personal-finance software maker, fetching 342 times earnings, or America Online, going for 199
times earnings.

(italics)But most paradoxical was the early abandonment of research and analysis in guiding investment-trust policies. (Investment
trusts were the 1920s version of mutual funds.) Investment had now become so beautifully simple that research was unnecessary and
statistical data a mere encumbrance. The investment process consisted merely of finding prominent companies with a rising trend of
earnings and then buying their shares regardless of price. Hence, the sound policy was to buy only what everyone else was buying -- a
select group of highly popular and exceedingly expensive issues, appropriately known as the "blue chips."(end italics)

Today's select group includes Coca-Cola, Dell Computer, Lucent Technologies, Cisco Systems, Intel, Excite, Compaq Computer,
Amazon.com, Home Depot, General Electric, Yahoo, MCI Communications, Worldcom, America Online and Microsoft. The Nifty
15.

David Dreman, head of Dreman Value Management, finds the increasing divergence between the Nifty 15 and the rest of the market
disturbingly similar to what preceded the nation's last bitter bear market, in 1973-74. "But the multiples are higher this time around," he
said. "Back in the 1970s, we had stocks with great stories and great earnings. A lot of the stories now are concepts without major
earnings as yet."

Ominously, many of the Nifty 15 fell on Friday, even during a morning when the market averages were strong. It was the first time
these stocks had weakened in the face of market strength.

(italics)There emerged a companion theory that common stocks represented the most profitable and therefore the most desirable
media for long-term investment. This gospel was based upon a certain amount of research, showing that diversified lists of common
stocks had regularly increased in value over stated intervals of time for many years past.(end italics)

Finally there's this similarity between the 1920s mood on Wall Street and the day traders and Internet stock jockeys crowding in and
out of stocks these days:

(italics)Making money in the stock market was now the easiest thing in the world. It was only necessary to buy "good" stocks,
regardless of price, and then to let nature take her upward course. Countless people asked themselves, "Why work for a living when a
fortune can be made in Wall Street without working?" The ensuing migration from business into the financial district resembled the
famous gold rush to the Klondike, with the not unimportant difference that there really was gold in the Klondike.(end italics)

Out of date, indeed.



To: zax who wrote (13669)8/16/1998 9:51:00 AM
From: llamaphlegm  Respond to of 164684
 
nytimes.com

A HISTORY LESSON

For Major Indexes, A Long Way to Doom

or years, both the returns generated by stocks and the valuations that investors assigned to them have vastly exceeded levels
experienced throughout market history. Some argue that outsized valuations are simply a result of a new era of investing in which
the old rules no longer apply. These folks are happy to pay 200 times earnings for America Online.

For the rest of us here on planet Earth, a little dose of reality now comes from the market watchers at the Leuthold Group in
Minneapolis. They have collected data back to 1926 on two indexes: the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's
industrials (not the S&P 500-stock index).

Let's begin with where we are now, based on two common measures: price-earnings ratios and average dividend yield, or the amount
of dividends paid by the companies in the group divided by the total price of those companies' stocks.

As of Friday, the Dow stood at 8,425. It carried a p/e ratio of 21, and dividends paid by the stocks in the Dow group yielded an
average 1.75 percent. The S&P industrials closed the week at 1,252.60. Its price-earnings ratio was 29; its dividend yield, 1.35
percent.

Over 72 years, the median p/e ratio on the Dow has been 15.3. How far off that median are we now? For the Dow to return to that
valuation level, it would have to drop 37 percent, to 5,291.

The median dividend yield on the Dow has historically been 4.3 percent, more than double what it is now. For dividend yield
valuations to revert to their median, the Dow would have to fall to 3,353, or 60 percent below its Friday close.

If the S&P industrials reverted to the historical norm as measured by p/e, this index would lose about half its value, falling to 634. If
measured by dividend yield, the index would collapse to 445, a fall of 64 percent.

Obviously, market experts don't think the averages will plunge to levels anywhere near their historical medians. And with most
Americans certain that the stock market is the best place to put their money, continued demand for equities could keep their prices in
the stratosphere.

The Leuthold Group has compiled another set of numbers that goes back to 1957 and includes only those periods when inflation was
low. If the Dow Jones industrials were to trade at the median p/e ratio during periods of low inflation, it would fall to 5,972, a decline
of 29 percent. The S&P industrials would have to drop 37 percent, to 788.

The old rules may indeed no longer apply to our brave new market. Still, it is better to know what history has to say than to ignore it.

GRETCHEN MORGENSON

LP