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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (15957)	8/16/1998 11:51:00 AM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 116764

Both at UK sunday edition. Focus - Holy warrior with US in his sights Mountain cedars hide the mouth of the cave. Inside, in rooms hollowed into the rock face, computer screens glow, fax machines whirr, messages are sent via satellite telephone. This is where Osama Bin Laden, the Saudi multimillionaire fundamentalist, conducts his holy war against the United States. sunday-times.co.uk What lies behind the collapse in cashflow? The answer is the American stock market, which has propagated a self-propelling boom. People have realised capital gains by selling shares and then spending the proceeds; businesses have borrowed to invest. The economy has thereby expanded and seemingly justified the exotic profit forecasts underpinning the Wall Street bubble. On my calculations, conducted for our new research group, the jump in equity wealth since the end of 1994 has boosted American GDP by more than 3%. In time, a self-fulfilling expansion is likely to turn into a self-feeding contraction. Nobody can be certain about the degree of stock-market overvaluation other than it is large, even after the recent decline. Moreover, share prices may overshoot downwards during a bear market as overgeared speculators become forced sellers. Nor can anyone know the duration of the correction. A bear market may be brutal and brief or deep and long - as in America in the early-1930s or as in Japan in the 1990s. But a big fall would deal a deflationary blow. As illustration, my model suggests a 50% vertical drop in share prices today would induce a fall in American GDP next year even if interest rates were slashed. The shock would be greater than in 1987, partly because equity wealth has doubled as a proportion of household income and partly because the market is now more overvalued. The effect would be to turn Britain's growth recession into prolonged stagnation. An overseas slowdown would combine with the lingering impact of sterling's overvaluation and the direct effect of falling share prices. The Bank for International Settlements reckons the bull market has added a cumulative 1% to Britain's consumer demand. That would go. This brings us back to the Boston Strangler's recipe for economic forecasters. Monetary policy is now finely tuned to the predictions of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC). As usual, last week's inflation report and bulletin gave a highly professional account of the British scene but a comparatively thin analysis of overseas conditions. The MPC thinks the risks to the chancellor's inflation target were still on the upside. But how would that view change in the event of a big stock-market slide? It would be disastrous for the poor if through want of attention to external shocks, monetary policy needlessly pushed Britain into a deep, long recession. In such circumstances, it would not be surprising if an exasperated chancellor felt obliged to throttle the MPC.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (15957)	8/16/1998 7:04:00 PM
From: paul ross	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116764

>>>> The root of the problem is the continuing American/Israeli drive to totally dominate the region.<<<<< I guess some could view Israel's will to stay alive as a nation as a desire to totally dominate the region, akin to calling the cops to report a crime in progress, hence violating that criminals right to commit a crime and attempting to dominate his life. My view is that the intense hatred generated towards US/Israel is in part the subliminated hatred most ME citizenry have towards their despotiic rulers, who artfully employ those feelings to their full advantage. Would you call the actions of a Sadam Hussein and a M. Quadafi a justifiable response to to any foreign imperialism?