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To: Berney who wrote (3471)	8/16/1998 4:12:00 PM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Respond to of 11051

A (cash-) buy-decision is also a commission-free short-trade. <>

To: Berney who wrote (3471)	8/17/1998 4:12:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Berney; RE:" WMT " >As for WMT, both the weekly and daily MACD charts popped bearish signals Friday. Decidely not a great sign. My review of the charts says that it could fall to $53 without breaking its weekly trend line. I got the short-term UpTrend at ~59, some retracement support at ~57; then that 53~54 area is important - just below that is the 200d EMA; last line of UpTrend (from October '97) says 49 is divine. My trends are drawn using closing prices (line charts) rather than from the bottoms of bar charts. FWIW, my accumulation strategy is : WMT - 1x59/2x57/3x54/4x49 = 53-1/8 avg For WMT to fall this much, or part thereof, the OEX-100 has to fall another -9%, n'est=ce pas ? Berney, unfortunately the BAMBI update you sent me - my software cannot read past the column A list of company names :-( ...and it means a lot to me ;-) Can you convert it to ASCII, either post it here in the sandbox or, re-send EMAIL in another format ? If you're in the mood, take a look at the DAX-30* chart, as DJ, JT and MG are following that EU engine closely! EWG - looks like supports at: 22 (DAX-30 ~5232); 21 +/-.25 (DAX-30 ~5000); and then 19.6 (DAX-30 ~4712). DAX-30 ~5000 represents a ~20% drop from 6200. -Steve

To: Berney who wrote (3471)	8/17/1998 5:13:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 11051

Hi Berney .. Thought I'd stop in .. I've been playing with trends still. Just been working with the S&P500. Starting with daily closing prices for the last five years, I've been looking at the rate of change (slope) of the 200day 50 day and 20 day simple moving averages. Started doing this back when I was talking about that umbrella topping formation. Was trying to find a math function that would describe the shape. Naturally took a derivative of the slopes and plotted the result. Any way.. some results that I posted elsewhere : ============================================ Some notes on rate of change of the moving averages of the S&P The rate of change in the 200 day simple moving average maxed out on 7/23/98 with a average rate of change of about a 1.8 point gain per day. As of the close Friday our current rate of change has dropped to ~0.8 per day. Projecting out: If we were to maintain the S&P @ Fridays close of 1062.75 the 200 day simple moving average trend line would turn negative on 10/1. If we were to maintain our current 50 day rate of change then the 200 day would turn negative on 9/11. If we were to maintain our current 20 day rate of change then the 200 day would turn negative on 9/4. At whatever date we cross the line from positive to negative the old "just but and hold" idea will be dead. We have already blown apart the "buy the dip" idea. Each time we drop more buy the dippers are getting their fingers burned. It's been noted that there seemed to be some strong support at just below the 1060 level for the cash S&P. I believe that was as a result of being near the 200 day average line. For several times in a row we have hit the 200 day and bounced back strongly. We have a problem now. The 200 day average has been moving up while we have stayed the same or falling further. At this time we are ~ 30 points below this average with a high probability of a nasty day Monday. Soooo .. at this time the 200 day average just may have turned into a resistance line instead of a support line. Gersh