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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William JH who wrote (1529)	8/16/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: Vieserre	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1911

Thanks for the article. I also recall, during the top in oil, the media incessantly commenting how the global supply of oil would soon run out, the sharp increase in price that would occur, and the alternative energy plays then being instituted as a consequence such as wind turbines and the like. And how no one would listen to the few that dared voice a contrary opinion. The following commentary from an analyst best states my current philosophical approach to the markets in this regard: "Whenever a market or an economic trend gets way out of balance, analysts begin to explain that the world has changed and that what may look out of balance really is not under the new formulae. The new formulae of course are always debunked when the item that is out of balance rights itself under laws of cycles that must be considered immutable. When free world public opinion sways too far one way or other, it is guaranteed to sway back at some future time. Thus we believe that the idea that the world will change to accommodate a global trade route that ends on the doorstep of the U.S. to the tune of hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars and does not create an unsustainable vacuum somewhere in the system is completely untenable. In the long run there is nothing benign about this kind of systemic imbalance, and the longer it goes on and the more acceptable it starts to appear, the less benign its demise will be. Of course, engineering an alternative at this point is impossible. Excess tends to feed on itself until the mechanism dies of its own unmanageable weight. Suffice to say that while everyone is rewriting economic theory to accommodate the creature, the creature will succumb to natural cyclical forces and the imbalance will be cured at great cost somewhere in the system. Most likely, as the deflationary trend continues, the large consumer debt load taken on to finance the world's American consumer of last resort will become an unbearable burden. " Currently, as the commentary suggests, I do not believe the dollar and the stock market can continue to ignore - as if they did not exist or are inoculated from being infected thereby - the domestic employment wage and benefit pressures, and the increasingly excessive trade-defict and government debt in juxtaposition with global expanding regional currency devaluations and deflationary trends and the Russian political crisis. I am constrained to believe we are at the cusp of a secular change. How this will play out for gold, and whether we are at a bottom for gold, IMO cannot be conclusively predicted by anyone. I can list as many reasons for it to go down as for it to go up. Prechter, his Elliot wave followers and other cyclists, such as Armstrong, as well as Angell and Arnold and are calling for a much lower gold price. Personally, I find this most difficult to rationalize under any scenario, but I accept the possibility. In my opinion, there is a decent chance that we are at or near at least a tradeable bottom. This week should be important from a technical standpoint. Vieserre