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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Brad Bolen who wrote (2117)8/16/1998 3:41:00 PM
From: WhySoSoon  Respond to of 2951
 
I too share your concerns. Even though I left HK for over twenty years, I still have a lot of feelings about it. HK starts to lose its competitive edge since the regional countries devalued their currencies one after another. In today's integrated global economy, consumers always look for the best value. If HK cannot provide the best value, they will go elsewhere. The tourism is a prime example and this in turn affects a lot of other industries. The high value property policy crashes down to earth and it triggers the devaluation of the HK market. For the last few years, everybody in HK knows how to make a living. All you have to do is go to the market and flips a couple stocks a day then you can have a nice meal. Others will do speculation on the real estate for their living. Since these are all easy money, many people quitted their jobs to become professional speculators. Now, the bubble bursts and it is a reality check. I think HK should take a tough medicine and recoup. Let the FREE market take it where ever it is. The problem is that the HK gov't is kind of influenced by a number of external forces. Other than the mainland gov't, the wealthy businessmen also exert a lot of pressure on the HK gov't to protect their wealth (the property price). But you know when you try to intervene any market, the end result is usually opposite. Because the more you try to intervene, the more the people think that it is heading from bad to worse. This happens to other countries such as Malaysia.

Another thing is the annual increase of the civil servants. I just don't see in this tough situation, you increase your budget by giving the public employees a raise. Yes, you may argue the top posts freeze their income level this year. But their salary level is way too high. For example, a typical average HK worker makes $12K a month while our Sir Donald makes over $200k a month (HK$). This is not acceptable. This is why HK is starting to lose its competitive edge. The wage is too high and not justified. Here in Canada, the wage of the federal employee has been frozen for a number of years due to economic downturn. All I can say is from an integrated global economy standpoint, everything will go to equilibrium. In the case of HK, it is going through a transition period to that equilibrium. Nobody can stop it because HK is an integral part of this global economy. HK people will suffer but at the end it will be better off for the gov't not to intervene.



To: Brad Bolen who wrote (2117)8/16/1998 11:37:00 PM
From: Ron Bower  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2951
 
Brad,

Please read the scenario I made at the end of post #2113.

I know intervention doesn't work. I know that HK cannot hold off a sustained attack buy the international hedge funds. I also know that they must find some way to hold them off and get some stability or Hong Kong as it is today may be nothing more than another Shanghai.

This may not be a battle only for their economy, it may be a battle for their autonomy.

Other -I haven't spent much time on it, but I still haven't found the one quote I read from a hedge fund manager. Many quotes from brokers saying what the hedge funds are doing and their intentions.

FWIW,
Ron