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Technology Stocks : CheckFree (CKFR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Longterminvest who wrote (6857)8/16/1998 8:40:00 PM
From: Robert Gintel  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 8545
 
Kalpesh,

I was delighted to see, and commend you for your public apology. This thread has been a unique and constructive experience for me, as well as for many others. It is important we keep it that way. Negatively held views are just as important as bullish ones - often more so. As long Checkfree stock as I am, and as bullish as I am, I have several times found myself in the position of restraining expectations which I thought were unrealistically high. It's often a matter of how one says things, as well as what they say. It's also important to be sensitive to plight of others, who may be sustaining investment losses.

Emotions ran high last week and several of the postings became much too personalized. That is understandable. We all took a big bath. We were victims of what, from my perspective, was a typical Wall Street over-reaction to a temporary, and almost inconsequential, news development.

Stock values in large part are built on trust, confidence, and expectations. Checkfree lost a lot of that last week, rightly or wrongly. Now those will have to be rebuilt, but probably only after the passage of some time.

First, the spasms of selling waves will have to exhaust themselves, as some of the large positions are finally unwound, and the panic and forced selling subsides. Then the volume has to quiet down, so that buyers can perceive the end of the selling pressures. We might expect to see investors move in more aggressively at higher prices, once they see stability in the price and relief from recent heavy selling pressures. The stock might be expected to move higher once again, as favorable news replaces recent unfavorable news in the consciousness of investors. The Street adjusts quickly to changed expectations, setbacks, or temporary shocks.

So, the next quarter will be back in the red again. The recent price decline has more than discounted that. It has discounted a lot more, in my opinion. A good market technician amongst us could be helpful in calling attention to the formation of a base from which Checkfree stock could be expected to recover lost ground, as it has done several times before from these levels, and at times when the company wasn't nearly as strong within its industry, as it is today.

I think one should keep an eye peeled, however, at the general market too. That could be an additional worry to investors. We have had too many years of speculative excesses in stocks. Too much money, in my opinion, has been placed in the hands of professional speculators, not investors, to manage. Investors' expectations have been raised to too high levels, and time horizons to too short levels. The trashing of Checkfree stock last week for reasons seemingly so superficial, and temporary are an unfortunate sign of the times, and not a healthy one.

Our trip to Florida next week, for those attending, couldn't come at at better time. We all need a sense of perspective and reassurance. Pete Kight is looking foward to it, and I also am anxious to meet the new CFO, as well as to learn more about the reasons for the switch. The opportunity to interface with Sharon Osberg from Wells Fargo, is an added bonus. I am looking foward to meeting fellow thread members too. We will spend this week finalizing activity and transportation schedules. It promises to be a worthwhile experience for those making the trip and who like to personalize their investments as I do.

Kalpesh, I commend you for your perspicacity in selling Checkfree stock before the recent debacle. I would be curious to know if, and when, you decide to climb aboard the train again.
Sincerely,

Bob Gintel



To: Longterminvest who wrote (6857)8/17/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: BitWizrd  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 8545
 
>>>I apologize to the thread if my previous postings over the past week hurted anybody's personal feelings.
<<<

I think you ought to be apologizing to Benny and micny. You make it sound as though any offense was purely incidental and unintentional.

I am not so gullible, and I doubt anyone else here is. Offense was exactly what you intended. I am not mollified a whit by your apology. If you are sincere, then apologize to the parties you intentionally offended.

If you can't bring yourself to do this, then just go away.