Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: drsvelte who wrote (1844)	8/16/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

DR: I own puts on AFS, they should get shredded in the coming environment. Go get 'em.

To: drsvelte who wrote (1844)	8/16/1998 8:05:00 PM
From: drsvelte	Respond to of 14427

Svelte's Sunday Shorts: Part II Here are some "fundamentally challenged" stocks that I am looking to short. They are similar to my previous shorts of AMP, WIT, BGG, TTC in that they, in general, are facing deteriorating conditions given the economic deceleration here in the US or the economic collapse in Asia. They are not "quickies" in the sense of getting a quick couple points on the downside. However, I think they will be rewarding, particularly as we head into the fall and economic conditions here and abroad worsen. I may not enter right away, but watch for the "relief" rally and see how far we move up (if we do??) MAN Manpower is a major provider of temp workers in the US,UK, and France. Our economy's rate of increase is slowing and there is talk of recession in the UK -- thus one would expect the demand for temps to wane. Earnings estimates are down from a quarter and a year ago and 9/98 estimates have been revised down three times over the last 90 days. On 8/14, MAN hit a 52 week low. Zack's rates MAN a "strong sell" and of the other 11 analysts that cover it only 2 rate a buy while 9 rate a hold. They are ranked 149 of 159 in there industry. IBD ranks MAN's relative strength at 13 and Accum/Dist as E. Volume averages over 300K. 207.95.154.130 PPG I shorted PPG a while back and eventually covered as I tightened up my buy to cover stops. Nothing fundamentally has changed since then. The company is a cyclical and they suffer when the economy turns. Earnings estimates have been revised downward. Stock is under distribution -- IBD rates it E. Nothing compelling to suggest it may move up. 207.95.154.130 Dinner bell is ringing, Part II to be continued.

To: drsvelte who wrote (1844)	8/16/1998 9:11:00 PM
From: Thean	Respond to of 14427

Doc, I want to follow up on your picks. VAL - its chart looks like the evil tower except its "bottom" is higher in the 20's. I watch PPG and I think it is fair to say they are both heading in a very similar way. AFS - LT's other pick in the same sector, KRB is also showing weakness. KRB is now hanging onto barebone support and if it breaks below $30, then it should slide. Maybe KRB has better short term drop and AFS for put play. MAN - its chart does look ugly and should be a good momentum short. LT - between AFS and KRB, which one has worse story? I am under short in the financial sector. Need to pick one for diversification purpose. For August option long straddle play this week. The play is to buy both call and put at the same price and pay the minimum premium in the hope that one of them goes worthless and the other bags big profit. I look at the volatile techs and they all have high price premium due to their volatility. With DELL's earning announcement after close Monday and BC's show entering either a boiling or relief point, things should get as volatile as they should. I have QNTM, SEG, MU, DELL, GTW as candidates for the straddle play. Anyone has a better pick among these?