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To: DavidG who wrote (37525)	8/16/1998 8:00:00 PM
From: Dave Gahm	Respond to of 53903

DavidG, You wrote: We would all have better luck guessing how Clinton will testify on Monday A very apt analogy, both Clinton and MU share a knack for creating positive spins to explain away very unflattering situations they have gotten themselves into.<g> I am not sure I will agree with Fabeyes on his wild guessing on yields of current MU 64mbit fabs Doesn't sound like wild guessing to me, he clearly understands the nut and bolts of making chips far better than you or I. If he is correct then MU will not make their projected 30% bit growth for the quarter and will have bigger losses than expected. given your assumption that DRAM stays fixed for the first quarter of 99 this is extremely positive for MU. I do not expect that DRAM will stay stable through the next quarter, I was just trying to make it easy on you. Actually I think we will see another 30% decline by the end of November. If DRAM does stay stable they will get back to breakeven earnings, excluding the TXN fabs, but will still be cash flow negative for Boise by $100 million or so. MU is expecting to be fully converted to .21 by mid 99 Boise yes, the new fabs no way. You seem to keep forgetting that once the TXN deal closes at least half of MU's production capacity will be last-generation and their overall average cost structure will rise, even given the low capital cost to buy the fabs. Maybe you are expecting the TXN deal to fall through? I was in Idaho last week and read an article in the Idaho Statesman about MU's plan to use Richardson for R&D. The interesting thing was that the last third of the article was devoted to explaining the hurdles that the TXN deal still had to clear before it could close, JV approvals, Italian government etc. The Statesman pretty much prints what MU tells them, so it does make you wonder if they are doing a little pre bad news spinning. When do the SEA DRAM companies start showing a positive cash flow where they can even stay in this business? If prices really do continue strong then all the big makers will be cash flow positive, if prices fall the Japanese are strong enough and diversified enough to weather the storm, Samsung same story. LG and Hyundai, who knows? Maybe they get merged with Sammy, maybe the Korean government keeps bailing them out. The Taiwanese, a bit of a mystery, the smaller makers seem to be trying to get out, but the bigger players still seem pretty committed and are not over-leveraged. Bottom line, MU has bet the ranch on a strong near-term recovery in DRAM. If it happens, you will be correct, they will have the leverage and low costs that goes with big market share and will come out smelling like a rose. If however, DRAM demand slides as the world economic picture deteriorates, and DRAM production picks up with 64mb cross-over and process shrinks, then they will run out of cash and be in a world of hurt. It appears to me that Wall St has already discounted the rosy scenario, while the facts support the gloomy picture. Guess that's what makes markets. Regards, Dave

To: DavidG who wrote (37525)	8/17/1998 2:30:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

david, clinton will admit to being involved with monica. just like he lied about gennifer flowers until he was put under oath. the trial ballons have already been sent out. skeets - looking into the crystal ball well in advance of the nerd herd ;-)

To: DavidG who wrote (37525)	8/18/1998 12:11:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

>>To: DavidG (37525 ) From: Skeeter Bug Monday, Aug 17 1998 2:30AM ET Reply # of 37579 david, clinton will admit to being involved with monica. just like he lied about gennifer flowers until he was put under oath. the trial ballons have already been sent out. skeets - looking into the crystal ball well in advance of the nerd herd ;-)<< was this really as difficult a call as you thought, david? this was easy. trial balloons, previous history of lies and infidelity. this was easy. no luck involved :-)