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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DaveMG who wrote (13798)	8/17/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

*LBP on money* Dave, commodity prices should drop because the cost of producing commodities keeps dropping and demand isn't increasing quickly. But demand is increasing. Oil consumption is up, and prices are low because the world is awash with oil contrary to rumours since 1974. And it can be produced for $1 per barrel in Saudi Arabia. The cost of producing commodities keeps dropping because the cost of building machinery to produce resources keeps dropping. That happens because metallurgy, computers, telecommunications, and the million other components of the production machinery is going ahead in leaps and bounds and ever more efficient and cheaper. Also, money is moving faster. And other things. The world is shrinking for example. This is not a deflationary spiral in the old sense. This is good deflation. I like cheap stuff. And they are NOT producing too much of it, nor is it too cheap. I need a lot more stuff and I want it a lot cheaper. So does nearly everyone. That's how I explain what's happening to prices of real, tangible goods. Lack of income for commodity producers such as Russia, Canada, Australia and Arab countries etc is good. I don't want them to get much money from me. If that causes a problem in their industries and countries, well, they'll just have to get a real job. I'll take over handling the consumption - I've been deprived too long while Arabs swished around in flash cars. The greenback is rising because most other countries lack the meritorious economic system of the USA. Which is not to say that the USA has a monopoly on all that is good in humanity. So we aliens send our money to Bernie Schwartz and Irwin Jacobs because they and the USA know how to produce great stuff. So the greenback rises - until Alan Green$pan prints a lot more of the stuff. Someone has to lend it out, yes. Alan lends it to Donaldson Lufkin Jenrette Securities a $bn at a time. They lend it to me - but their interest rates are excessive at the moment so I won't borrow more just now. When their rates are cheaper, I'll borrow some more and go shopping. I think I'll buy a cdmaOne network, a house, a Globalstar phone, some biotech R&D companies, take a few business class trips around the world, staying at some super salubrious hotels and generally have a nice time. There are a lot more people I've heard of who are keen to borrow some more money, especially if the rates go down substantially. I can't see why this can't go on for decades. It seems wonderful to me. The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting richer. The longer the better. I think the 2% was just for Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia but perhaps not Japan since they haven't strictly crashed in terms of GNP. John Cuthbertson pointed out I must be wrong on that 2% figure. Despite this mistake, it seems that the trade between the crashed economies and the USA is quite small compared with the USA GDP. The high stock prices for USA multinationals is partly because they aren't all that high really compared with interest rates and economic prospects. Anyway, follow some trade for a USA multinational: For example, Coca Cola in China buys Chinese water, Australian sugar, glass from Philippines [or wherever], plastic from middle east producers or Singapore, computers from Taiwan, advertising from Satchi and Satchi and nothing touches the USA, so no trade effect. But then, the profits come pouring back to the Coca Cola shareholders many of whom are in the USA. The USA also taxes Coca Cola. And USA staff spend in USA and pay taxes in USA. But no trade with the USA. So trade isn't that high, but free cash flow is! Well, that's my theory anyway and I just made it up. So perhaps SurferM will give me a D for dumb. Same for Qualcomm. Plastic, solder, bits and pieces from Taiwan or Singapore. Chips from some 'fab' maybe in the USA. Build production lines in Brazil and China. Sell them all over the world. Again, not much trade inside the USA but big profits for Qualcomm which sends them to me in New Zealand. I go shopping for nice Toyotas, Konicas, Q-phones, Singapore Airlines flights etc. Still no trade in the USA, but Qualcomm gets rich. Don't you think that all makes sense? Printing money is easy and if you hold a money auction in the USA I suspect you will find a lot of credit worthy bids. I bet Alan Green$pan is getting ready to do just that. I'm drooling at the prospect. No way does he want Paul Krugman accusing him of serial and parallel stupidity. Mqurice PS: *On topic* A friend has just visited the USA. He said he popped into a few shops and Qualcomm phones were scarce or not available. Qualcomm must be selling millions. Also, sales staff were quite hopeless in product knowledge. Qualcomm is onto a good idea if they sell QCP820, Q-Phones and Anita [TM] via the Web. People will know what they want and that's a clean, quick, convenient and cheap way to sell. And easier than doing it for computers like Dell because the value and size are so small. Easy to post. Easy to handle warranty. Easy to pass on instructions on use - just read the manual. 14 days.