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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Norton who wrote (76)	8/16/1998 9:34:00 PM
From: DD™	Respond to of 15132

"The looming spectre of October. In honor of Halloween, the market has been scared by ghosts and goblins in what seems to have become a yearly ritual. The Y2K concerns, which may eventually rival Chicken Little as one of the greatest 'the sky is falling' laments of all times." I agree that these factors could contribute to a slow, agonizing slippage of the major market averages through the fall, with October being the "pins and needles" month. Y2K is always a concern, if for only its tendency to cause more psychological uncertainty as you point-out. DD

To: Alan Norton who wrote (76)	8/16/1998 9:35:00 PM
From: stock bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Alan, <<None of these are tracked in Mr. Brinkers' market timing model.>> If the foreign markets and economies are not part of Bob Brinker's timing model, what do you think of the model's accuracy? After all, these offshore factors have a major influence on the US stock markets. Stock Bull

To: Alan Norton who wrote (76)	8/28/1998 9:49:00 PM
From: Alan Norton	Respond to of 15132

Subject: Pavlovian Market Theory Investors have learned that corrections of eight to ten percent in the Dow signals a buying opportunity. This has worked very well in a bull market, and indeed, I have taken advantage of these opportunities in the past. The question remains, how long can this pattern last in light of the latest unfolding global economic concerns? Can we expect this bull market to last forever with returns similar to those of the past few years? How long will the U.S. market be a safe haven for foreign investors? It appears that the latest round of selling/shorting has been initiated by large institutional holders. The small investor has been holding their stocks and tentatively buying. There has no been no panic from the small investor up to this point. This cycle must be broken. There is risk in the market place and investors must eventually learn that you cannot expect twenty to thirty percent gains yearly. A correction doesn't always lead to new highs. Bob has mentioned that we should not expect these kinds of returns in the future, but expectations are sometimes hard to relearn. I believe that the average investor still expects these rates of returns. Until this pervasive attitude changes, the market is at risk for a shaking out that may rival some of the greatest bear markets of the past. I am waiting for a signal from the small investors that signifies that they have learned this lesson. To date, I have not seen this. When the speculators and momentum players who demanded to buy stocks like AOL, Yahoo, and Amazon at their highs earlier this year finally decide to sell in this market, I will actively buying. Until then, I expect the current volatility to continue.