Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Machaon who wrote (24578)	8/16/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

Bob, I do think that LGND is out and about, doing some deals. I just heard about another one this weekend. Usually, the deals include equity at a premium, as well as additional up-front payments, research payments, and royalty and milestone payments. For shareholders, such arrangements are far superior to simple equity add-ons, of which LGND has done one since going public in 1992. Thus, the number of outstanding shares has to be taken in the context of what else was received. The article in Money discusses the $200 million deal between LGND and LLY. Even if LGND was at $20, they would have to sell 10 million shares to get $200 million dollars. Instead, the sold LLY a little over 2 million shares because only $37.5 million of the $200 million was for equity, and it was at a 20% premium, so even that was sold for $17.23 a share. The dilution has to be taken to context with what is received. Right now LGND's price is very depressed, along with the sector. As noted in the Money article, big pharma's needs for blockbuster products are significant. Therefore, LGND may be able to negotiate a higher premium, especially if it is tied to today's prices (big pharmas stock price is rather high, while biotechs have been hit hard). I think that SRGN had a few deals completed and a few more that they were considering. LGND's management, expertise, and resources, should make it easier to complete more deals with the SRGN technology. However, LGND has quite a bit of technology in the IR and STATs programs. This weekend I did hear about more activity by LGND than I expected, so my earlier prediction of 1 or 2 deals may have been an underestimate. I do have a call into LGND to clarify how to interpret the two statements in the 10-Q (one saying that resources through 1999 were sufficient and the other talking about equity offerings).

To: Machaon who wrote (24578)	8/16/1998 10:19:00 PM
From: RXGOLF	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 32384

<<By the end of the year, or early 1999, we could see two approved products and two new NDAs submitted for Targretin Gel and Capsules, plus a possibility of other pipeline or partnership news>> Ok Robert, we are going to have to begin the eternal optimist club, with "Spin Henry" as president, "Robert Pool Party Barry" as vice president, myself "Double Bogey RXGOLF"as secretary, and of course "Andrew Attack Poodle" as our official mascot. I recently stated on the record that LGND WOULD NOT be a $10 stock for long, and sure enough, I was right :-(. I would like to remind you, and myself, that the science at LGND is no worse off now than it was when the price was double what it is now. LGND is closer to profitability now, than it ever has been. Dr. Robinson still has himself surrounded with quality people with a plan for profitability by 1999! Last, I would like to point out that IMHO, that when LGND becomes profitable, that the share price will be substantially higher than it is today. If the market and Slick Willy both get pounded tomorrow, things might get uglier yet. I still believe that someday, LGND will rise and our patience may well be rewarded. At this time, I have zero faith in the markets and less than zero faith in the biotech sector. But the traders with real experience tell me these sectors rotate, and biotech will probably shine one day. If I want any money at all in biotech, LGND is still my choice to let it ride on. Good night, Greg