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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robin 187 who wrote (50016)	8/17/1998 12:10:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

I know nothing about DELL and do not pretend to be able to predict the future. DELL and the market could rebound. I do know that an option is a wasting asset. Depending on Volatility DELL's options may have been overpriced in the first place. Therefore, regardless of price movement over the next month you may not see significant appreciation in your position. You do not mention the entry point...what the price of the option was. It sounds as if you paid about $20 apiece which (if so) reflects a lot of volatility in the derivative. In essence I don't have enough facts to provide advice. I do know this. If you are losing sleep over a position it is my experience that the wise course of action for me has been to close it out and move on. Hanging on to losing positions is painful and if habitual becomes very costly. Just my nickel. Sorry I cannot be more encouraging.

To: robin 187 who wrote (50016)	8/17/1998 12:28:00 AM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 58727

Robin the only reason for this post is to say.... you can not beat yourself up over the money that you have lost or the decisions that you have made..been there.. done that way too often and it is no good for you emotionally or physically..it is part of the business and chalk it up to a very high priced education.... you have to stand back and try to be calm ...oh and I know how hard that is!!! I screw up even more when I get upset and emotional about a trade... Dell is suppose to run up prior to earnings it usually does...and I believe it has run up after earnings too...but you will have to ask the Dell heads on that one. I made a comment awhile saying this might be the time that all the little guys get in expecting the typical run up and the big guys take advantage of it...( I think it was Goldman that was dumping alot of shares week before last) .... and the market stinks right now we are down almost 12 points tonight on the S&P futures japan down 2.5% and I dont get a quote for what Hong Kong is doing(maybe it is closed) I have no advice because this thing can be played out so many ways... here is one thinking...many people believe we are going to have a rally after maybe one or two down days.... you could do a horizontal time spread as I suggested to one person... he could have sold some Aug calls against his Nov at around 108 and bought them back the same day with Dell lower by a few points...picking up some change you could think about that same option.... there are several opinions about Dell and its triangulation...read Don Sew and LG's discussion (opposing views) and the link that I provided from M. Gonzo.... I cant see a rally tomorrow because of this Clinton mess.... I know you want something to repair your position...but I am not going to say anything... because I dont have a clue as to what is going to happen with Dell... it might be that you should just sell out and forget about it... but then you also might be selling near the bottom.... This post is absolutely no help to you I know because I know what you want.... but the one thing I can tell you is SCREW newsletters ;-) and I wish you the best of luck...I hate to see the little guys lose their money.... and if you are around tomorrow....post away...we can at least try to make you laugh as the market craters tomorrow .. BUCKLE UP YOU LONGS here is a little piece of statistical info..that fits in with David Plonk and Don Sew (at least what I am remembering of their predictions) What happens under the following conditions: 1. The S&P 500 rallies and exceeds the high of the prior day by more than .25% 2. The rally in the S&P falters and the index declines for the day. 3. When the dust settles, the decline for that day pushes the percent move over the prior 21 days below -10. A: These conditions were met on August 14, 1998. Over the next two days, both the S&P 500 and the Dow decline over 5% on average in 7 of 8 occurrences. Note in the case of the S&P 500, the one time out of 8 that the market moved higher, the uptick was minimal (Avg. Positive = .36%) With the S&P 500 below 1080, the next real support for the market is the cluster of aciton at 980. Buckle up.