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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (24457)	8/17/1998 4:51:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

1. Asia continuing its steady fall 2. Russia devaluing Is that the trigger for the crash? Could be, but I still doubt it. First, Russia devaluing is not like Hongkong devaluing; the latter would cause havoc in East Asia which after all produces a significant fraction of world GDP. It is actually a positive development since the restructuring will avoid/delay state bankruptcy. It should be good for a major early-morning sell-off, but this might be considered a good buying opportunity by many. There are too many positive factors on the horizon: Russia (perhaps) solving its problems; Clinton likely to resolve his little problem. Remember that a crash occurs when everyone thinks that things can only get worse. Even the technicals predict significant improvement later this week. This should be a "sell the rumor, buy the news". I therefore predict that the market will close well above the 1050 SPX level. I am not trying to predict how much it will fall it between, though I will buy some deep-out-of-the-money puts if it appears that the market will close anywhere near David's 1012 SPX level. Good trading to all, Phil