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To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (564)	8/23/1998 6:18:00 PM
From: Serge Collins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 686

I agree with both your assessments. The market decline will precede a general decline in economic activity, in fact this has already started with the Dow declining some ten percent so far. Later this year and throughout the winter, we will begin to see a general decline in economic activity which will reduce capacity and lead to a recession in 1999. Once this occurrence becomes evident, some parts of the world will already be in deep recession, indeed some areas will be in a depression. I'm expecting a severe downturn and a bear market to last the better part of 1999 as well as the rest of 1998. I don't want to sound alarmist but I think we could go as low as 5,500 on the Dow. What a way to ring out the millennium.