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To: Trey McAtee who wrote (37544)8/17/1998 11:41:00 AM
From: DavidG  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
Trey,

Achilles was never right it was just very low, which got the bears all lathered up. But what you conveniently do not seem to remember is that they would only give one lowball price for 16mb DRAM as opposed to AICE's list of varying types of DRAMs. Achilles took a while before starting to publish SDRAM prices where AICE was reporting them early on...and FINALLY Achilles never gave current prices on 64mb DRAM prices(they lagged by at least a week) while AICE was quoting current prices on many different 64mb arrays.

The only thing Achilles did was give a very low "sucker" price on their web site to get OEM's attracted and half the time the products could not be delivered at those prices. AICE has always been consistent in their prices and tracks very close with the spot to slightly above. Another site that I was also using which was much better than Achilles is Smiths which also provids historical data.

Good Luck Trading

DavidG



To: Trey McAtee who wrote (37544)8/17/1998 11:43:00 AM
From: Chas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
Trey,
your comment:but, lets get back to these positive fundamentals...
1) DRAM pricing...a long term trend has not been established.
2) shutdowns...this could change at any time. MU is a beneficiary. in other words, the
company is still at the mercy of the asians.

I would agree with item 1, lets see if suppliers raise pricing to key OEMs on Sept 1 or hold. Spot is still very strong..(I use actual daily data from guys in the spot, dont trust any web site), and it is going to vary from deal to deal and who is buying and who is selling.
2) Koreans are shutdown since Friday, it will be interesting to watch NEC and Toshiba reaction over the next several weeks. they seem to be very aggressive since April, but if they fall into ranks and firm up the pricing and restrict volume then it might show some backing and DRAM could stay firm thru Sept. which is typically a very strong month for demand.
Good trading.