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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ron peterson who wrote (27887)	8/17/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

This OSX smash reminds me of the final phase of 1973-75 bear market. Many stocks which seemed cheap after plunging 50% from their peaks confounded bottom fishers by plunging another 50%. But once the bottom was in a huge rally quickly followed.

To: ron peterson who wrote (27887)	8/17/1998 1:40:00 PM
From: Tulvio Durand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

"Death by a thousand cuts" Pisani again so described the oil services on CNBC. Let's be realistic about the "when" the bleeding will stop. EVI is only the most recent of the OSX to have warned. Merrill Lynch's lowering estimates, follows several other analysts, and is likely only the beginning of a litany of revised lower numbers. The time response for fixing the oil glut is measurable in months (I have seen estimates of four-to-six months). The time constant for increased oil demand in Asia is measured in years (second half 1999 and possibly later). Absent a world-class event like war with Iraq, full blown civil war in Nigeria, Indonesia, (Russia?), nothing positive is on OSX's horizon for several months. The only amelioration that one can look forward to is balancing in supply/demand brought on by OPEC's production cuts and a cold winter by year's end. Also potentially positive would be if US Congress decides to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with 100 million barrels of cheap oil -- a long shot at best (I hope many of you wrote to your Congressmen). One cannot reasonably anticipate that Mutual funds will buy this sector for months. And without the funds' deep pockets OSX will not regain upward momentum anytime soon. That's my take of the "when". Tulvio Message 5488488 * Message 5489457