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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (6708)	8/17/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian---I like AJC as a person. I just think she is wedded to a FA system that will not alert her sufficiently early enough to be of any use after THE top or any significant intermediate top. But then that's the problem with FA since stock prices lead news rather than follow it. By the time AJC's system tells her that 'there's something different this time' (as in deflation) . the overall market will be down at least 20% and individual stocks much more due to eps problems. So, in that sense, I take her views now with a grain of salt. Nothing personal against AJC. -----ps as a separate matter, I also suspect that her basic thesis of low inflation validates today's high pe's is flawed. Steve Leuthold for eg went back and measured the peak pe's for all low inflation periods in the past and found that the current SP500 should be closer to 600. Ned Davis's website (www.ndr.com) has some interesting charts comparing interest rates with earnings yields in the past and comes to the conclusion that the current mkt is still significantly too high relative to interest rates. My 2c