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To: DiViT who wrote (35254)	8/17/1998 9:03:00 PM
From: John Rieman	Respond to of 50808

DVD sales projections........................... Analysts Give DVDs a Positive Spin By DAVE McNARY c.1998 Los Angeles Daily News LOS ANGELES -- Digital versatile disc players are well on their way to joining TVs, VCRs, PCs and CD players as a must-have consumer electronics product. DVDs have already moved from the periphery as a favorite toy for the so-called ''new adapters'' who buy leading-edge gizmos. Mainstream status seems inevitable. One trade group predicted last week that DVDs are within four years of becoming a mass-market item. By the year 2002, there will be DVD video players in 8.6 million American homes and factories will produce 183 million discs, according to the study by the International Recording Media Association. ''Look at 2002 as only the beginning,'' proclaimed Charles Van Horn, IRMA executive vice president. DVDs and players went on sale 18 months ago and are expected to be in 800,000 homes by the end of the year, IRMA projects. Other trackers believe that figure could reach 1.3 million. DVDs, which are the same size as audio compact discs with seven times the capacity, play full-length movies with digital clarity, offer six-channel sound and instant rewinding, and store massive amounts of information such as trailers, deleted material and interviews. A basic DVD player retails for $400 while discs sell for $20 each. The number of outlets selling DVDs will hit more than 12,000 at the end of this year, compared to 5,000 at the end of 1997. The trade group also said typical consumers are buying DVDs at a rate of 15 to 20 per year, compared to 10 to 15 VHS videotapes. ''IRMA's statistics chart a rapid rise for DVD during the next four years as the format establishes a strong consumer niche for itself,'' Van Horn said. ''DVD ... is a rather small marketplace in comparison to VHS, but as the first true convergence entertainment product, the potential, according to our statistics, is tremendous.'' Adding further fuel will be the inclusion of DVD-ROM players in most new personal computers. IRMA projects combined worldwide production of DVDs will reach 430 million in 2002 while DVD-ROMs will reach 850 million. Thomas Adams, president of Adams Media Research, says IRMA's statistics may be on the conservative side based on what he foresees as strong sales during the upcoming holiday season. He notes that DVDs are growing at similar rates to compact discs when that format was rolled out in 1983. ''The bottom line is that round discs are in and cartridges playing in machines with moving parts are out,'' Adams asserted. ''I don't see any reason to change the view that it's going to happen.'' The IRMA projection came in the same week as a trio of key developments that underscore the growing importance of DVDs: --20th Century Fox dropped its opposition to the format and announced plans for eight titles to be released later this year. Fox's move was crucial because it had been the lone major studio holdout on DVDs and because its endorsement clears the way for Paramount and Fox to release a DVD version of box-office megahit ''Titanic.'' ''If Fox and Paramount come out with a 'Titanic' DVD, it will really propel the market,'' said Jay Frank, sales manager at home electronics retailer Evolution Audio in Agoura Hills. ''This format is not a fad. It's here to stay.'' More................................. nytsyn.com