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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PAR who wrote (24662)	8/18/1998 6:36:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

I know of no report that predicted a profit in 1998. In fact until late last year, all showed a loss for 1999 as well as 1998. BARS, which projected LGND's EPS growing to $14.55 by 2006 showed the year 2000 as the first profitable one, showing a profit of $0.10. Now the analysts are projecting a profit in that range a year earlier. The profitability in 1999 is not based on any charts. It is what analysts who cover LGND project. The three most recent projections (Bear Stearns, Legg Mason, and Hambrecht & Quist) are for profits of $0.09, $0.10, and $0.11 respectively. These are not my numbers, they are theirs. LGND IR has indicated that the projections assume that ONTAK and topical Panretin will be approved and sold for most or all of 1999. With that base, they need to either sell Targretin for part of the year or receive anticipated milestone payments. If milestones don't come through and Targretin sales are delayed, then they will probably disappoint (unless they come up with some additional deals). If Targretin sales and milestones come through, they expect an upside surprise. There are no guarantees, but their are no analysts who are projecting a loss (an older BARS projection, which uses very round numbers, shows LGND breaking even next year on $75 million in income). Thus 4 of the 5 analysts who cover LGND have made an estimate for next year, and none show a loss. LGND's press release indicates that the milestones for this year have been backloaded and thus 2H '98 could make up for the 1H '98 (last year's projections ofr the first half of this year included some milestone payments which have not happened yet).