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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (6714)	8/18/1998 9:15:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10921

Mason, there are a few numbers that I have not been able to add up yet. PC prices have tumbled for miscellaneous reasons. PCs are nothing but an assembled box of computer parts. INTC parts, are reported to be in limited supply so the prices should be stable. The MSFT part will always be ridiculously priced unless DOJ wins the battle. Now the DD and the DRAM prices are supposedly stabilizing. Wouldn't all of the above start putting the squeeze on the boxmakers', who had been benefiting from dropping component prices? Then if we look at the components. Is INTC's shortage due to product transition, a normal cycle every few years? Is the DD situation due to free market forces finally getting supply/demand closer to equilibrium, but is the capacity still there? Memory prices, as we all know here, are due to cut backs and total shut down of fabs to artificially reduce demand. So what is ahead? It is unlikely that PC prices will go back up. If component prices stabilizes, will the likes of Samsung and NEC start cranking up production so they don't lose ground to MU? Will there be a next round of price cuts from the components? Ramsey

To: Mason Barge who wrote (6714)	8/18/1998 3:12:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

<. At this point, it's just a question of how long to hold dead money without losing the jump on the up-cycle.> Once again the interesting thing to me is that you could have easily made 25%-40% just by buying when things look terrible. Look at the returns in these stocks off the bottom! <One specific note: Carl Johnson & crew have made, to me, a pretty compelling case for Photon. The FPD business needs additional capacity as it is a new technology which is now implementing and just about out of capacity. The industry is not part of the sector, as far as timing goes, and AOI should be solid in the coming year.> I've been buying PHTN recently.. I love the story... and it can't be all bad if Carl J. likes it... he's pretty conservative. DAK