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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: VLAD who wrote (13577)8/18/1998 1:01:00 PM
From: betty moyers  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23519
 
I was finally able to get the 10 Q and read it.

It does have a lot of foreboding but is really pretty much normal protective wording.

For instance, even if they are far along and pretty sure of marketing partner (as VLAD impression from conversation with CFO) it is not a certainty until the i's are dotted and the t's crossed. Got to have it in writing before it means anything.

Wording is confusing. I don't think they are saying Q3 and Q4 are at a loss but rather that there is no way they will make enough for the 98 year to be profitable. They are certain of that and so am I. They neither promise nor deny a positive Q3 and Q4. Just plain noncommital which reflects the level of uncertainty that exists.

I do believe they are stating that they have had some manufacturing problems in Q3 (as well as the past). They will have manufacturing problems every Q from now on. No process ever goes smoothly. The question is how significant? There is no way to read between the lines here. We'd need feedback from within the plant. Anyone have contacts.

They do state repeatedly that they sell product to Astra for resale and they sell product to Janssen for resale. So they are paid when they sell the product to Astra and Janssen. They do not have the wait until the product is resold. That is Astra's and Janssen's problems. However, projecting into 99, it begins to be Vivus's problem. If product is not resold then orders for supplies will dwindle.

The uncertainty level and negative statements are certainly unnerving. But if we download 10Q's from other similar companies,i.e. small R&D based with some manufacturing, I firmly believe they will shadow foreboding for foreboding.