To: Venkie who wrote (58911 ) 8/18/1998 1:41:00 PM From: Dell-icious Respond to of 176387
Excerpt from Herb Greenberg on thestreet.com: Herb on TheStreet: Back in the Saddle: Getting the Vanderbilt Read on the Market and More From PC Bulls and Bearsthestreet.com By Herb Greenberg Senior Columnist 8/18/98 9:01 AM ET Glad to be back. Now, for some quick notes: If you caught me on CNBC's "Today's Business" this morning, you would've seen me yack about why you might not want to be bearish on Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and the PC industry, despite their highflying stocks and seemingly obvious pitfalls. Got the idea after making my usual round of calls. Stumbled on one extremely bright money manager who not long ago was short these stocks. What caused him to change his mind? One word: Intel (INTC:Nasdaq). He talked about how, in one meeting with Wall Streeters, an Intel exec claimed the company was experiencing "tightness" across the board. This manager's own conversations with Intel and others in the industry led him to conclude that the chip maker, usually a good leading indicator for the PC industry, "hasn't sounded this bullish in two years." (An Intel spokesman, sticking by the company line, would say only that the company hasn't veered from earlier guidance that the second half should be strong.) If Intel is capacity-constrained, this bullish money manager figures its prices will rise -- and so will PC prices as PC makers pass along price increases to customers. Just yesterday Hewlett-Packard (HWP:NYSE) said prices were stabilizing. But higher prices from Intel can't be good news. Or so say the bears. Which brings us to the latest bull/bear tug-of-war: Will the PC makers be able to pass along price increases, or will they have to eat them, resulting in lower margins? Have consumers and businesses become conditioned to shop for the lowest price, or will they be willing to pay up for power? Haven't PCs really become commodities? After all, as a New York Times piece of a few weeks back showed, they're all made at the same plant. Oh, and don't look now -- despite HP's proclamation, prices are continuing to fall. Last week, in an announcement that was certainly missed by most, CompUSA (CPU:NYSE) wannabe Micro Center introduced its own $399 PC. That doesn't include the monitor, but you get the point. The beat goes on.