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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (13919)	8/18/1998 2:03:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

AOL was already up over $4 when the story broke, and in any event AOL is the customer.

To: Jan Crawley who wrote (13919)	8/18/1998 3:02:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 164684

A fresh look at the TA: The sector has pulled back significantly over the past few days with some stocks in the group that may see technical rebounds. The chart for the internet sector indexes remains bearish - very bearish declining MACD, stochastic indicator that is at about 70 but short-term neutral to positive. The PDM/MDM divergence indicators are solidly bearish. The short-term RSI indicator is bullish. The rate-of-change indicator is neutral. Overall, the sector trend is bearish but some of the downward movement has been exhausted. A favorable bearish climate for AMZN overall. Short-term relief over the Clinton affair apparently winding down may ease some fears in the market but only temporary. Problems in Asia and Russia still haven't gone away and will divert the strength of any recovery in the market for a few months. AMZN's TA: We got a confirmation of the top again when the technical rally was fed by a short-squeeze. That blasted most chances for the stock to reach new highs anytime soon (next 45-60 days), IMO. As a result of the three attempts to break through the 140 level, the stock has picked up a significant amount of overhead resistance that would need to be absorbed in order for it to make new highs. The MMs, hedge funds, insiders with stock to sell, VCs with stock to sell, and other parties bought out in the recent acquisitions all should be aware of this and will take advantage of any move toward the resistance level as an opportunity to sell. That's about 3MM new float that will likely come on the market over the next 45-90 days. More will come to market latter in the year and in the first qtr of next. I look at this increased float much as I would a large stock buy-back program in reverse. The threat is there to dampen an extreme movement and that in itself may be enough to prevent new highs from occuring. But REAL shares are going to enter circulation even if the price doesn't move toward the 140 level. Even those who may control large blocks of shares will know that they are increasingly not the only ones controlling the float so they are more likely to play a more cautious game. The stochastic indicator is at about 80 - having run most of the way up in it's posible range. It now looks poised for a move down, IMO because we are not seeing the increased volume on the upside moves needed to move to the extreme in the indicator. It's already near the extreme but could move higher still, but I just don't see that as very likely. The money-flow oscillator shows net money flowing out of the stock even during the recent move up. This supports the observation and "feeling" that there is a lack of momentum and volumes have contracted on the upside rallies. If I were at the trading desk of a hedge fund operator or smart short seller, I would look at the situation like this: "What is the TA telling me today and this minute, what's on the news wires that is or is not influencing the stock and what's going on around it in the sector and the market?" If the stock starts to make a technical or news or brokerage push related bounce, then let it move or even contribute slightly to the upside. When the TA turns or the factor pushing the stock wears out they then start to sell over the next several days with cumulative down volume exceeding up volume. The RSI indicator continues to show signs of weakness - both since the first attempt to move past 140 when the indicator reached near the upper bounds and the short-term leg down. The subsequent attempts to rally have failed to lift the indicator as it trends down. The Rate-of-Change indicator made a ultra high peak on June 24th while the stock was near 100 and a few days before the stock peaked at the 140 level. The volume went out of the last stage of the rally as only the small momo players and scared short-sellers were left ot scrabble over the shares - volume became less even as the stock looked invincible in many speculator's eyes. Today's rally looks stronger than I expected but offers another selling opportunity. I don't think it will reach past 130.