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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: betty moyers who wrote (13588)	8/18/1998 3:09:00 PM
From: AlienTech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

>>It's frightening to think that I might have learned to think like them.<< I think it would be rather hard for to you imagine yourself being that stupid and put yourself in such a position. >>I gather they have never heard of contingencies.<< Whats that? From what we have seen in the last 6 months, they never even had a game plan. After something happens they try to fix it. And it usually takes a few tries to fix it. The only thing I have seen that they have done which makes any sence in the plan was the stock buy back, abiet a r&d company with expenses do not buy back shares no matter what, but if you are desperate enough and dont know the game you have to try to show something. This company needs a new CEO, CFO, IR, PR and a few others who knows how to run a company that competes with someone. None of these people have a clue.

To: betty moyers who wrote (13588)	8/18/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: VLAD	Respond to of 23519

betty, I'm starting to get some crazy insane thoughts myself lately. Should I use a rope or a gun? <ggg> Anyway, I decided that from now on my focus is going to be not on Vivus but the competition. It is the competition that is hurting us more than anything else. If you learn to eat, sleep and like the enemy then you can know what his weak points are and capitalize on them. I think Vivus also needs to do the same. I have tallied the IMS numbers on Viagra and here is a brief assessment. First, I attempted to guess the average lag time for a new script to be filled. I guestimate that it is probably somewhere in the 4 to 8 week range. Assuming only 4 weeks (I use this number since insurance coverage has weekly allotments) as the lag time I totaled the new scripts through 7/10 to get 2,671,319. Now if we divide the total refills through 8/7 we get 936,708. So with a 4 week refill time I get 936,708/2,671,319=.35 Which means that with a 4 week refill rate, Viagra is only getting a 35% return rate. Now using the same calculation I also calculated different longer lag times that would actually give Viagra better return rates: For 5 weeks I calculate 36.6% For 6 weeks I calculate 38.5% For 7 weeks I calculate 40.9% For 8 weeks I calculate 43.7% Now also considering that a large % of men take Viagra as an enhancer and do not actually have ED this would give Viagra substantially better refill rates than we would see if only men with ED used it. Conclusion: Giving Viagra the most favorable refill scenario ie not subtracting men who use it and do not have ED and using an 8 week refill time 56.3% of men who tried Viagra have not refilled their prescriptions. The numbers do not lie. They are based on IMS data. Vivus has a very large percentage of Viagra failures to go after for an increase in market share.