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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGraham who wrote (4695)	8/18/1998 4:47:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78625

re N: IMHO, very H at this point, the answer is maybe. I'm not sure that high book value (relative to current price) is the key. Rather, overall economic trends and expected demand for the metals. If you've looked at the long term chart of N, you've seen that it has traded at bv before, but also below 10. And depending on where one bought, e.g. at 10, one has had a very, very long wait for stock to be rise - maybe too long for it to be a worthwhile investment @ $10. And I assume that there is value to the stock-- the minerals/elements are still in the ground. I'm not sure, but N may be majority owned by another company, which may have better prospects or at least more flexibility/diversification. Possibly someone else on the thread has more or better info. here. Many of these metal companies are selling at long time lows. So, it's not just a matter of picking N because of bv. For example, I own CYM and TIE - both IMO of similar genre to N. At least with CYM, selling also below bv, there's a good dividend yield (until they maybe cut it), diversification among metals and geography, and perhaps a repeat of CYM's history of trading at 17-18 or better. With TIE, also trading at multi-year lows, TIE remains (for the next couple of years I believe) a contracted supplier to Boeing, and I expect TIE to remain profitable. This whole mining arena is ugly IMO. With so many value stocks out there now, it would be difficult for me to recommend N. (Maybe for somebody with TONS of patience, well-diversified portfolio, very interested or knowledgeable of the business or knows people employed there). I just don't see any compelling reason to buy now. Please note though regarding my opinion and positions: I've been wrong many times before - and the way things are going, I may have to amend that to wrong most times before -g-. Paul Senior

To: BGraham who wrote (4695)	8/19/1998 11:15:00 AM
From: Scott Mc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78625

Gordon, I can add a bit to what Paul said, Inco is the largest producer of nickle in the world, its gotten itself into a bind with their purchase of Voisey Bay(Newfoundland), a huge easy to mine(if you take politics out of the equation) site. With the collapse of nickle prices and the problems at Voisey they are in a real bind. Im in agreement with Paul about mining companies, most of them are holes in the ground to pour money into, at least with oil you get a steady(reasonalbly predictable cash flow), Ive looked at Inco in a very tentative way a couple of times, if I were to get in I would look much cloer at 2 convertibles, one an Inco debenture and pays (I would guess 10% without chking) and another from Teck Corp (another large mining compnay) converts which also convert into Inco. They might both be busted since Inco has dropped so much.. Scott